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Happy Independence Day Weekend!
 Happy 4th of July weekend. I'm heading to CA tomorrow, so blogging will be light for the next few days. Please keep Fighting for Freedom!
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"At Least it Ain't Yoko ..."
  I'm not sure why, but I've enjoyed juxtaposing these two pictures. If you can come up with a better caption, please let me know ...
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Dem Candidate of The Future?
Writing in Roll Call, Mort Kondracke says that if former VA gov Mark Warner runs for president, he's likely to utilize some pretty cool technology: The Web site of Warner's political action committee, Forward Together, has nifty graphics, and Warner (co-founder of NEXTEL) told me that he's exploring such new media techniques such as creating mobile phone instant messaging networks to contact supporters -- perhaps more to emphasize that he's the candidate of the future than for any actual tactical advantage it will give him.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 20
We'll review all 20 next week in a posting. Duverger's law n. the apparantly 'iron law' of politics, one of the few, attributed to French sociologist Maurice Duverger that states that plurality electoral systems will always yield two-party systems and never multi-party systems. taken from my notes from the first comparative political systems class I took at Gtown
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Unforgettable
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
- Napoleon Bonaparte
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Matt in Orange County, July 8!
On Saturday, July 8, I'll be in Orange County, CA, conducting our training seminar: Teaching Elephants to Run! In Just One Day, You'll Learn: ... The Latest Insider Campaign Secrets That Work
... Updated Techniques on How to Craft a Persuasive Message
... To Identify & Target Your Voters
... Tips on how to Recruit an Army of Supporters, Including Donors
... How to Get Out Your Vote!
... Meet Leaders & Candidates Who Have Won Elections and Learn How They Did It!
... And Much, Much More! For more info -- or to register -- please email Beth Holder, Executive Director The Lincoln Club of Orange County at Beth@lincolnclub.org.
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Bloggers for hire ...
Howard Kurtz has some thoughts on the phenomenon of campaigns hiring bloggers (as Hillary recently did) ...
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Oh Eight
This is a pretty neato site to keep track of potential GOP prez nominees as they make the news.
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Conservative Student Toolbox: Hammer
Yesterday, the ISI provided us with some good pulling grease (a subscription to National Review) for our toolbox. Tuesday, we started our toolbox with a receptacle analyzer (The Screwtape Letters by C.S. Lewis). Today we add a hammer, not least because I recall using an actual hammer very often in college to try and fix things with force (so seriously bring one to college). For our Toolbox, our hammer is a famous paper written by my all-time favorite international relations scholar, Charles Krauthammer. It's called: "Democratic Realism: An American Foreign Policy for a Unipolar World." If you plan to take an international affairs / relations course, or if you want to be armed with cogent arguments to defend the United States' liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan, you'll want to read this piece closely. Liberal professors have been often seperated from reality in their own little reclusive academic world for so long that they expound crazy theories of how the world works that make so little sense that it's sometimes hard to rebuke them. (Such claims as: countries aren't important anymore, or terrorists are the product of an implicit psychological warfare from western prosperity). Krauthammer gives you a hammer to fix this situation in the classroom. By understanding this paper, you'll be more effective saving yourself and your classmates from starting to believe liberal mumbo-jumbo in international affairs.
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NYT: Tomorrow's Top Story
I don't think funny man J.Lileks is too far off on his predictions for New York Times headlines coming up. ...
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 19
Dear Pa, NASCAR dad n. a white, working class father, seen as an ideal campaign target. 2002 Washtington Times (June 30) A2 The Democrats appear to have just discovered this electoral fact and are publicly admitting they have a "NASCAR dad gap." 2004 Boston Globe (Feb. 19) A15 NASCAR Dad is man of the political year. He's the XY chromosome heir to the Joe Six-Pack, Reagan Democrat, Angry White Man types and stereotypes of years gone by. ...I found a Nascar Dad blog that is unfortunately not updated anymore, and the def. is from the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang
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Unforgettable
"I think one of the great problems we have in the Republican Party is that we don't encourage you to be nasty. We encourage you to be neat, obedient, loyal and faithful and all those Boy Scout words, which would be great around a campfire but are lousy in politics."
-Newt Gingrich (???)
[As an Eagle Scout, I feel obliged to point out that Newt missed these "Boys Scout words": trustworthy...helpful, friendly, courteous, kind...cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean and reverent -- all very Republican of course. If you're interested in Boy Scouts, you may be interested in this book by a up-and-comer in the conservative movement. He used to write columns for the paper I published in high school]
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... And the News
VikingSpirit has an interesting post up about MySpace. Check it out ... Cleveland Plain Dealer Blog writes: "Like a child who's discovered a new word, Ney refers to his critics as liberals six times in his latest fund-raising letter. And just in case his supporters are wavering, Ney mentions the boogeyman: billionaire and Democratic supporter George Soros." (Hey, if you ask me, this is smart fundraising. Frankly, he should have mentioned how Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy want to stop him, too...)
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Obama: Dems Must Engage Evangelicals
National Journal's " On Call" blog reports: Speaking to a conventional of religious liberals today, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) plans to say that "the majority of great reformers" in history used "religious language to argue for their cause."
And when Dems fail to appeal to evangelicals, they cede the field. Says Obama: "In other words, if we don't reach out to evangelical Christians and other religious Americans and tell them what we stand for, Jerry Falwell's and Pat Robertson's will continue to hold sway."
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Psychological Warfare in VA Race
A few days ago, I wrote about how political consultants sometimes make strategic decisions based on their opponents' consultant. The Allen/Webb race in VA is shaping up to be this sort of race. Frankly, it's fun to watch. The latest little maneuver that I've picked up on is that (in press releases) the Webb campaign is continually referring to Senator Allen as "George Felix Allen, Jr." This reminds me of how George H.W. Bush would intentionally mispronounce Saddam Hussein's name. On both sides, this is hardball politics at its best; Both sides are having fun and trash-talking ...
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Campaigns & Elections Magazine
... Another item for your toolbox is Campaigns & Elections Magazine. You can get 40 percent off by clicking here .
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Conservative Students' Tookbox: Pulling Grease
Along side our receptacle analyzer (C.S Lewis' Screwtape Letters), a conservative college student will need pulling grease in his/her toolbox. Pulling grease makes it easier to pull wires through metal conduit. Our pulling grease is a subscription to National Review. The Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI) offers free subscriptions of National Review to college students right now. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity! You can join ISI here, and they offer a ton of great workshops, opportunities, seminars and contacts for college students. Now, there is no information on the ISI website about getting your free NR subscription because it's a limited time/while supplies last kind of deal. So join now (also free) if you're headed to college. You will probably not have time to read the paper everyday, so block out an hour every two weeks and read NR cover-to-cover. Consider it grease for pulling yourself through the liberalism at college without damage to your values.
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Unforgettable
We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. You ask, what is our policy? I say it is to wage war by land, sea and air -- war with all our might and with all the strength God has given us -- and to wage war against a monstrous tyranny never surpassed in the dark and lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. -Winston Churchill
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 18
Sorry for the delay this morning...I was down at the Heritage Foundation. More on this later... horse-shed v. to attempt to influence individual voters, witnesses, or jurors, esp. while feigning impartiality. 1901 in DVNI (1933) 369: There was no opportunity, as Mr. Lincoln used to say, to "horse-shed" [the witnesses] before they were brought in. 1856 B. Hall College Wds. (ed. 2) 258: Horse-Shedding. A the University of Vermont, among secret and literary societies, this term is used to express the idea conveyed by the word electioneering. from the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang
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Put That in Your Toolbox ...
Good point, Boz. If you can't read Matt Lewis then C.S. Lewis is a close 2nd... But seriously, Matt Lewis & The News focuses primarily on being a resource for people who are philosophically conservative and want to become more technologically proficient. (It is very dangerous to make someone who is not philosophically correct more technologically proficient. In that case, all you are doing is making more efficient socialists.) For this reason, Boz makes a good point; If you are in an environment (such as most colleges), where you are constantly barraged with liberalism, it is important to find a way to counteract the negative influence. For example, when I was in college, I would listen to Rush Limbaugh on my way back from class. ... Boz reads C.S. Lewis. While his choice may be more intellectual than mine (hey, he goes to Georgetown and I went to Shepherdstown...), we both had the same results: We weren't brainwashed by our professors! Put that in your toolbox ...
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Conservative Student Toolbox: A Receptacle Analyzer
Light-emitting Diodes (LEDs) on a receptacle analyzer will alert you, among other things, if your receptacle is properly grounded. The counter-part to a receptable analyzer that a college student needs to survive college is The Screwtape Letters by C.S. Lewis. It's a quick read, but read it a couple times (at least once a year during college), to make sure you're properly grounded at school. Many of the temptations that Screwtape and Wormwood discuss are the very ones that you'll be hit with every day in college. This book will really help you keep your head screwed on straight (pun intended) with materialism, multiculturalism, religious pluralism, involuntary collectivism (Marxism), and cultural secularism praised as the religion of college professors. If you're a parent, grandparent, aunt, or uncle make sure that your college student has his receptacle analyzer, The Screwtape Letters, in his/her toolbox before heading off to college.
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New Series of Posts...Tools for Surviving College
A Conservative College Student's Survival Toolbox I've spent two years at Georgetown University,a no doubt very liberal Jesuit college. I imagine that many of you have kids that either already in college or planning on going to college. At the very least, most of you know a college student or maybe you're a college student yourself. Whatever the case, as the 'back to school' shelves at retail stores across America are being put up, I'd like to offer my two-cents on what a conservative student needs to survive college. Now, I didn't have all of this stuff when I got to college, but that's what this list is for: I wish someone told me this three years ago...the first tool forthcoming in a couple minutes. image from epa.gov
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... And the News
Grover Norqust vs. John McCain. This is a long-running feud that could someday become an MTV Celebrity Deathmatch for politics ... Mitt Romney on the 700 Club. No matter how good you are, comparing yourself to Ronald Reagan is always a tough sell. I'm just waiting for someone to say, "I knew Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was a good friend of mine ..." Rush Limbaugh detained. The latest in a string of bad news breaks for Rush ... Daily Kos: Organizing vs. Campaigning . Frequent readers know I sometimes link to this liberal site. While I don't agree with them philosophically, I follow the adage to "know thy enemy as thy self" ...
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Unforgettable
Yonder are the Hessians. They were bought for seven pounds and tenpence a man. Are you worth more? Prove it! Tonight the American flag floats from yonder hill or Molly Stark sleeps a widow!" -- John Stark, at the Battle of Bennington, 1777
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Hillary Hires Blogger
The Fix reports that Hillary Clinton is stepping up her efforts to reach out to the liberal bloggosphere: She has hired Peter Daou, author of the Daou Report (a blog on Salon.com) and the director of blog operations for the 2004 presidential campaign of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Daou will join Clinton's senate race fundraising committee, "Friends of Hillary."
In a post announcing his new job, Dauo said that "as a true believer in the importance of [blogs], I'm thrilled about Senator Clinton's interest in building this bridge with the online community and I intend to do everything I can to make it as productive as possible." As a "blog advisor" to Clinton, Daou will seek "to facilitate and expand her relationships with the netroots," he said. Frankly, I think this is a good move. She was recently booed by liberals at a conference because of her stance on Iraq. This problem wasn't going to go away, so she figured she might as well co-opt them. Hillary's strategy: If you can't beat 'em -- buy 'em!
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Neducation
I missed this earlier, but re Matt's last post...Ned Lamont also has a MySpace site. I have a sneaking suspicion it's not really him though.
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More Creative TV Ads
 Ned Lamont is back up with some more creative commercials. This time, he has superimposed Lieberman's voice and President Bush's face. Obviously, the goal is to transfer voter angst for Bush (among Dems) to Lieberman...
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Failure to Re-Launch the Dixie Chicks
Like many conservatives, I felt a sense of Shadenfreude when the Dixie Chicks announced plans to cancel about half their concerts planned for their current tour. While their anti-Bush comments were the single greatest contributor to their fall, several factors conspire to keep them down. More... The Dixie Chicks burst onto the scene in the late 90's with a fresh look and a fresh sound. They combined traditional sounds like bluegrass with an irreverent sensibility (who can forget "Goodbye Earl?). Until they arrived, it's hard to recall any famous country "girl" bands (though I'm sure they existed).
But like all success, theirs spawned imitators. For example, SheDaisy has had some big hits, recently. And though Sugarland isn't an all-girl band, I would argue they are now occupying The Dixie Chick's niche.
Jennifer Nettles -- Sugarland's lead singer -- has the same spunk as Natalie Maines -- minus the anti-Bush rhetoric. And with hit tunes like Baby Girl and Something More, Sugarland has soothed the cravings that country listeners have had for the Chicks' sound.
And like the Chicks, Sugarland has proven to have crossover appeal. In fact, Nettles recently recorded a duet with Bon Jovi (Who Says You Can't Go Home?).
Were it not for Nettles, country fans might have missed the Chicks more, and thus, been more willing to forgive.
Of course, instead of fighting Sugarland for their country base, the Chicks decided to concede their country fans, hoping instead to gain success in the crossover world.
Their marketing strategy sought to re-brand them as the "thinking man's" country band. The fact that you can buy their cd at Starbucks says something. It is doubtful that Toby Keith would sell many cds at Starbucks (now Crackerbarrel, on the other hand...).
Here's the problem: How do you re-brand a band called "The Dixie Chicks" and make them endearing to the Volvo-driving, latte sipping crowd? I mean, the name screams "redneck." (I propose they rename themselves The Latte Ladies.)
As you can see, the Chicks find themselves without a home. They have been replaced in the country world -- and have not been able to successfully transition into the Starbucks world. It will be interesting to see what their next step is...
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Who's Who in MySpace Politics
I have no trouble finding politicians' kids on MySpace or FaceBook. But from my cursory research this morning, I'd say that the Democrats are in the lead as far as getting candidates on these sites. This is what I found--let us know if you find any others. Phil Angelides -- Democrat candidate for governor of California has a MySpace site. Angelides' Democrat opponent, Steve Westly, also has a MySpace site. Allan Lichtman, Democrat running for MD's open Senate seat has a MySpace site. Pete Ashdown, Democrat running against Senator Orrin Hatch in UT has a MySpace site. Joe Ford Jr., Democrat candidate for TN-9 has a MySpace site. Barack Obama has a MySpace site. All 3 Democrat candidates for the Maryland Governorship have FaceBook profiles (I can't link this, unless you're a member, but here's the WPost article that tipped me). They are Douglas Duncan, Martin O'Malley, and Roberty L. Ehrlich Jr. Oh...and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has a MySpace site. Independent candidates are popping up on MySpace too.
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MySpace Strikes Again ...
San Diego Union Tribune reports: As Bilbray was busy conducting his first full week as the congressman elected to finish the term of imprisoned former lawmaker Randy "Duke" Cunningham, a popular political blog was busy posting pictures of the Carlsbad Republican's two youngest children -- one of them 19 -- in various poses holding beer and liquor bottles. The photos initially were posted elsewhere online by the Bilbray kids themselves. Running for office? Do you know where your kids are???
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Unforgettable
"I do not fear failure. I only fear the "slowing up" of the engine inside of me which is pounding, saying, "Keep going, someone must be on top, why not you?'" -- George S. Patton
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 16
Farley's Law n. a theory postulated by former Democratic National Chariman James A. Farley holding that voters are unlikely to change their mind on which Presidential candidate to vote for after Labor Day. 2000 Jewish World Review (Sept. 6): James A. Farley was one of Franklin Roosevelt's chief political operatives, and he stated that there was no use campaigning after Labor Day because voters has already made up their minds by then. In other words, whoever was ahead on Labor Day won. Farley's Law is not followed today--polls show a large number of voters make up their minds after Labor Day.
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Campaigns & Elections Magazine Special Offer!
You owe it to your philosophy to study how to win. And one way to study is by reading. That's why I am so happy Campaigns & Elections Magazine is offering our readers this special offer. For a 40% off educational discount, click here, and enter the password: 7YALENote: It is important that you enter the code where it says "Special offer code" if you want to receive the discount.Enjoy!
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Quote of the Day!
For those of you who have never been a campaign manager or a consultant, this is what is some of the unbelievably bad comments you have to deal with (from some candidates)? As if beating a five-term congressman wasn't hard enough, John Jacob said he has another foe working against him: the devil.
"There's another force that wants to keep us from going to Washington, D.C.," Jacob said. "It's the devil is what it is. I don't want you to print that, but it feels like that's what it is."
Jacob said Thursday that since he decided to run for Congress against Rep. Chris Cannon, Satan has bollixed his business deals, preventing him from putting as much money into the race as he had hoped. Seriously, if you were working on this campaign, you'd be pulling your hair out right now...
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More "Big Mo"
I believe the term was coined by George H.W. Bush after winning the 1980 Iowa caucus. Ironically, the victory did not give him momentum: This approach brought Bush victory in the Iowa caucus, where Reagan scarcely campaigned. With the national spotlight shining on him the weeks before the crucial New Hampshire primary gave him the opportunity to explain with Reganesque clarity what he would do if elected. Instead, Bush prattled away that he had the big momentum--the "Big Mo"--which suggest to conservatives that he was not a leader who took their causes with due gravity. Bush later confessed that such "preppy phrases" gave "an impression that my campaign lacked substance." In New Hampshire, Reagan turned the tide, besting him by more than two to one......
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Unforgettable
"One ought never to turn one's back on a threatened danger and try to run away from it. If you do that, you will double the danger. But if you meet it promptly and without flinching, you will reduce the danger by half. Never run away from anything. Never!" -- Winston Churchill
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 15 + review
Big Mo n. beneficial momentum, as in a political campaign. --opp. Little Mo. 1989 Life Goes On (ABC-TV): We'll get a jump on him and start building the big mo. 2004 U.S. News & World Report (Feb. 18): Uh-Oh: Big Mo No Mo. ...(review)...
granfalloon n. [coined by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. (a true-blue lib)]
any large, amorphous organization without real identity.
front porcher n. [Cf. S.E. front-porch campaign, in Safire New Lang. Pol., p. 156] a political candidate who is reluctant to campaign widely.
shift and shaft n. having a tendency to increase taxes at a more local level by decreasing them at a regional, state, or federal level.--often attrib.
banana superpower n. a dominant nation which behaves like a weaker country with a fraction of its resources.
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The Consultant vs. Consultant Game
This month's Campaigns & Elections Magazine was especially interesting to me -- primarily because a lot of the focus was on political consultants. One article focused on an interesting phenomenon: political consultants using the opposing consultant, rather than the candidate, to craft their strategy. For example, Illinois-based consultant Mike Mason says he often runs his campaign based on his opposing consultant -- an idea he got as a college football coach: "When you're coaching, you always look at the other coach, the person in charge. Their different personalities are going to come through. There's a reason why a football team is a running or a passing team, because the coach likes to do it. It's not always because of the personnel he's got." This is the kind of stuff I love! (I know I'm a political junkie)...
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the word....
on various topics.... Roll Call: A new Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday showed state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) with a 52 percent to 34 percent lead over Sen. Rick Santorum (R). Roll Call: The Gun Owners of America-Political Victory Fund announced its endorsement of Tim Walberg (R) on Wednesday. The former state Representative is challenging 7th district Rep. Joe Schwarz (R), whom the group referred to as "anti-Second Amendment." ...also on Schwarz--some others are very passionate that " Joe Schwarz is a liberal" NRSC: play a fun online game with Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI) The Hill: Republican Rep. Ray LaHood (IL) opines via The Hill's blog on minimum wage: "This has been a fairness issue that hasn't been addressed for nine years. I think that our party should show some heart and sensibility to those who haven't had a raise. If we want people to move from welfare to work, one way to do it is for them to go to jobs in which the minimum wage has increased. The Hill: Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) is thinking about chairing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) next cycle: "I would be open to talking" to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) about the job, he said yesterday. "I have offered myself in service to the caucus in many ways. I do recognize the demands of that job." Crowley is chairman of the DCCC's business council. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: ( this is the kind of news I read in my town) 80 year old man will attempt, despite his wife thinking he's nuts, to break the national high jump record. Go get 'em Bill. (It's 4 feet for an octogenarian). Life Style Extra: South Park creators play religious musical--about Mormons. Hat-Tip: The American MindRight Wing News: Right of Center Bloggers Choose Worst People in America. In response to Keith Olbermann's upcoming book The Worst Person in the World and 119 More Strong Contenders. "Matt Lewis and the News" did not participate in these rankings at all. Some are a little unfair. Nonetheless, it's chuckle-some.
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The Future of MySpace campaigns?
This continues the phenomenon of MySpace / Facebook -- that we've been watching... From Roll Call this morning: "MySpace.com, the wildly popular social networking Web site that attracts 52 million visitors, every month, may be adding politics to its burgeoning portfolio in the near future....
Users of the site shouldn't be surprised if "in the near future, MySpace creates a platform specifically designed for politicians and others trying to make a positive impact in the world, much like we have unique platforms for" music and video, (Senior VP Jeff)Berman said. "MySpace can work for politicians just as effectively as it has worked for bands and other artists."
California Treasurer Phil Angelides (D), who is challenging California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) in November, and...Ned Lamont, a millionaire cable executive known for his outreach to the netroots who is making Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) sweat in the Nutmeg State Democratic primary, (both have) MySpace profile(s)."
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Unforgettable
"It is not the critic that counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or the doer of deeds could have them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the Arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but he who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great devotion; who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails while daring greatly, knows that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls, who know neither victory nor defeat." --President Teddy Roosevelt
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 14
Remember, we need to stay up on the liberals' vocabulary too. Quoted in the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slanggranfalloon n. [coined by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. (a true-blue lib)] any large, amorphous organization without real identity. 1960 K. Vonnegut Jr. Cat's Cradle 91: A seeming team that was meaningless in terms of the ways God gets things done, a textbook example of what Bokonon calls a granfalloon. Other examples of granfalloons are the Communist party...the International Order of Odd Fellows--and any nation, anytime, anywhere.
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The "Dems Want to Cut and Run" Bumper Sticker is Coming!
 This quote is from Hotline: "... some analysts say that the GOP's "ability to use language to outmaneuver" Dems "could transform three small words" -- cut and run -- into "an advantage at the ballot box."
... UC Berkeley prof. George Lakoff: "What it says is, 'You're a coward,' and moreover it presupposes that the opposite is to stand and fight." According to Lakoff, GOPers have become skilled at "distilling an issue to a single phrase." Lakoff: "Then they repeat it over and over until it becomes part of people's brains. The Democrats haven't learned to do that."
According to (The Brookings Institution's Stephen) Hess, voters tend to respond to a message "that fits on a bumper sticker." ... Repitition works. Keep it simple. That's smart politics.
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Unforgettable
"Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race." [emp. added] --President Coolidge
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 13
front porcher n. [Cf. S.E. front-porch campaign, in Safire New Lang. Pol., p. 156] a political candidate who is reluctant to campaign widely. 1977 Coover Public Burning 432: I like the campaign trains, I'm no front porcher, but this was too [explicit] much. from the oxford dictionary of american political slang
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Do Swing Voters Exist?
Chuck Todd of National Journal has an interesting take today on swing voters: There's an ongoing debate in political science circles about whether there is such a thing as a "swing" voter. I believe that "swing" voters exist, but not to the extent that they vacillate back and forth between the two parties. Rather, a majority of swing voters "swing" between voting and not voting.
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Unconventional Wisdom on the GOP Nomination
I have a couple of thoughts on the GOP presidential primaries that I think might be "off-beat" enough to actually be somewhat original (I know, it's tough to find anything to say about this presidential race that hasn't already been said). ...They say it's easier to organize voters "against" something than it is to organize them "for" something. But John McCain might not be the only politician to benefit from the "lesser of two evils" theory of political compromise. In fact, it might be a double-edged sword. Here's why: The common wisdom is that McCain is seen as the only candidate capable of beating Hillary, and thus, will attract new Republican voters. Fair enough. But is it also fair to assume that some portion of the conservative base will never support him? And if so, is it possible that some conservative Evangelicals might just be willing to vote for a Mormon (in order to stop McCain)? If so, Gov. Mitt Romney stands to gain ground, too. ...Of course, the other major candidate to watch is VA Senator George Allen. Right now, conventional wisdom says Allen is in trouble. He's facing Jim Webb -- a former Reagan Administration official -- who will, at least, keep Allen busy through November (while the other guys are attending Lincoln Day Dinners in IA and NH). But I believe Allen will win his re-election -- and that this victory may give him more momentum than any of the other candidates. He will have proven he can beat a "moderate" Dem (which may help him if anybody other than Hillary gets the nod). And he will be the fresh-face who isn't "over-exposed" in the early states. In short, the Webb challenge might be the best thing that ever happened to Allen.
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Conservatives, Mark Your Calendars
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7 Postings from the Vault ...
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Unforgettable
"Oswald Garrison Villard, a political journalist of the old school, who spent half a century crusading for standards of probity in public administration, once declared that he had never ceased to marvel at the shortness of the public's memory, at the rapidity with which it forgets episodes of scandal and incompetence. It sometimes appeared to him of little use to attack a party for its unethical conduct, for the voters would have no recollection of it. The glee with which the epithet 'ancient history' is applied to what is out of sight is of course a part of this barbarous attitude. The man of culture finds the whole past relevant; the bourgeois and the barbarian find relevant only what has some pressing connection with their appetite." --Richard Weaver
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... And the News
...Somehow I missed this Washington Post article about Facebook. Now, if you've been following my warnings about the dangers of Facebook and MySpace, you will thoroughly enjoy this 180 degree spin from Phil Noble, founder of PoliticsOnlineine: "In 1968, Bobby Kennedy showed up and hung around the student center, and Gene McCarthy did the same. Facebook is the student center of college students these days," said Phil Noble, founder of PoliticsOnline, a Web site that examines the relationship between politics and the Internet." (Well, I guess that's one way of looking at it. Frankly, I think the internet is a neutral tool that can be used for good or evil, depending...) ... The Hill reports there is yet another new liberal website seeking to copy conservative ideas: "Kenneth Baer and Andrei Cherny, both speechwriters and authors who have worked within the New Democrat movement, will launch Democracy: A Journal of Ideas today at the National Press Club. ...The first issue appeared online yesterday at www.democracyjournal.org." ... And the Dems have launched a spoof George Allen site.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 12
shift and shaft n. having a tendency to increase taxes at a more local level by decreasing them at a regional, state, or federal level.--often attrib. 1992 Portland Oregonian (July 9) A13: Essentially, what is happening is the dederal government is shifting costs onto local governments. It's what we call 'shit and shaft' federalism. from the the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang
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Unforgettable
To political philosophers and students of the intellectual tradition of the conservative movement, Frank Meyer is a household name. A lot of the rest of us have never heard of him. But many people credit him with something unforgettable: the first philosophical defense of modern conservatism. He's one of those guys that blows your mind to read. And read again. What Frank Meyer did is articulate a philosophy of "fusionism." I know it sounds like something out of the Jettson's, but in fact, "fusionism" is the movement and intellectual tradition of "fusing" Adam Smith's free-market libertarianism with Edmund Burke's socially concerned traditionalism. This is something most of us take for granted as modern conservatism. But fiscal and social conservatives didn't always get along, and we can thank Frank Meyer for lighting a fire in people like William F. Buckley Jr. that has no doubt profoundly impacted the way we think....(more)
Here is an exerpt from Meyer's seminal piece "Freedom, Tradition, Conservatism" featured in Modern Age in 1960. You can read the whole thing here. It is truly unforgettable.
[T]here have developed doctrines apparently sharply opposed to each other, and sometimes presented as mutually incompatible, but which I believe can in reality be united within a single broader conservative political theory, since they have their roots in a common tradition and are arrayed against a common enemy. Their opposition, which takes many forms, is essentially a division between those who abstract from the corpus of Western belief its stress upon freedom and upon the innate importance of the individual person (what we may call the libertarian position) and those whodrawing upon the same source-stress valve and virtue and order (what we may call the traditionalist position). But the source from which both draw, the continuing consciousness of Western civilization, has been specifically distinguished by its ability to hold these apparently opposed ends in balance and tension; and in fact the two positions which confront each other today in American conservative discourse both implicitly accept, to a large degree, the ends of the other. Without the implicit acceptance of an absolute ground of value, the pre=eminence of the person as criterion of political and social thought and action has no philosophical foundation; and freedom would be only a meaningless excitation and could never become the serious goal of a serious politics. On the other hand, the belief in virtue as the end of men's being implicitly recognizes the necessity of freedom to choose that end; otherwise, virtue could be no more than a conditioned tropism. And the raising of order to the rank of an end overshadowing and subordinating the individual person would make of order not what the traditionalist conservative means by it, but the rule of totalitarian authority, inhuman and subhuman.
On neither side is there a purposeful, philosophically founded rejection of the ends the other side proclaims. Rather, each side emphasizes so strongly the aspect of the great tradition of the West which it sees as decisive, that distortion sets in. The place of its goals in the total tradition of the West is lost sight of, and the complementary interdependence of freedom and virtue, of the individual person and political order, is forgotten.
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Red Sox Go Negative
 My good friend, "The Show," went to see his beloved Yankees play the Nat's, this weekend. He reports that he was initially astonished to hear all the booing the Yanks were getting (ostensibly from Nat's fans). As he was leaving, he noticed all the Boston Red Sox fans ... AH! The Red Sox weren't even playing Washington, but their fans came out to boo the Yankees!!! This speaks to the fact that this is, without a doubt, the greatest rivalry in baseball. But it also reminds me of politics. If Bill Clinton were coming to your town, you know the College Republicans would be on hand to have a counter-demonstration. ...This goes to show that in Washington, even our baseball gets screwed up with politics.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 11
 I saw a variation of this phrase in John Bliese's thought provoking book The Greening of Conservative America, and sure enough found it in the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang (actually, Bliese uses "banana republic")... banana superpower n. a dominant nation which behaves like a weaker country with a fraction of its resources. 1997 Washington Times (Sept. 5) A3: Mr. Reagan criticized President Clinton for turning America into a "banana superpower" and nailed Republicans for doing nothing. photo from http://www.mustangmods.com
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...And The News
... The Wa Post has a good article on the political genious of Karl Rove. ... This Dem pollster is kind enough to tell us how to talk about Iraq: Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster with close ties to House Democrats, highlighted the complexities in public opinion. Some traditional Republican lines, such as the charge that Democrats "don't get what it's like in a post-9/11 world" or "We're bringing democracy to Iraq," are falling flat in focus groups, Lake said. But she said voters do respond well to a GOP favorite heard often in the past two days on Capitol Hill: "We'll either fight terrorists there or we'll fight them here." ... Sunday's Wa Post has an article on Barak Obama's presidential aspirations: "We've visited 25 states since taking office," he said. "And in each of those states, we might have 2,000 people show up at a rally. And we'd get back to D.C. and we'd realize we didn't have e-mail addresses for any of those people. That might be a useful thing to have when, you know, I'm running for something and might be looking to raise some money." Let this be a lesson to all political candidates and public speakers. You might not speak to 2,000 people, but if you're not collecting email addresses, you're not doing your job.
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Candidate in Focus: Rick O'Donnell
I know ya'll are politically erudite -- but at least a couple times a week I'll try to post on a Candidate in Focus. They'll always be real conservatives running good campaigns that I suspect might become conservative house-hold names in the near future. On Tuesday, I posted on Adrian Smith. Many are saddened that Bill Owens is being term-limited out of the Governorship in Colorado (not to imply anything negative about term limits, they're good). Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO) is running to fill Gov. Owens spot, and so is leaving his post in Colorado's 7th district.  Unopposed in the primary, Rick O'Donnell -- a stalwart conservative -- is seeking the 7th seat from Colorado. He's running for Congress because in his words: "I do not want America to be the France of the 21st Century." First a run-down of his positions using his words: "We must first and foremost recognize that we are a sovereign nation with a right to secure our borders, enforce our laws and stop people from illegally entering our country." "it is time to completely reinvent the budget process, stop runaway spending and restore fiscal sanity to Washington D.C." "It is time to scrap our tax code and start over. " "[We must eliminate] corporate pork and corporate welfare so the free market may flourish." Like that? Me too. O'Donnell also has a very thoughtful and thorough plan to stop deficit spending. His race will be with either State Senator Ed Perlmutter or former State Representative Peggy Lamm in the general election this November.
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Election advisers say it's best to drive voters batty
Regular readers know I have long advocated that you can never contact voters too many times. This has often been controversial. Writing for The Herald Tribune, Jeremy Wallace confirms that most political consultants agree with me: "When political consultants plan a strategy about how to win an election, it usually involves bothering voters as much as possible." More: Michael Cornfield, a political mail consultant, said not only does he send an avalanche of mail, but sometimes he will send out letters in difficult-to-open packages on purpose. There's one cloth-like material that he uses that forces people to even dig out a knife to open it up. The more effort people put into opening the piece, the more they are invested and will want to see what the mail says, he reasoned.
"I want to drive you crazy," said Cornfield, who works for a consulting firm called Electionmall Technologies.
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Unforgettable
I'm a die-hard Packers fan so I can't say nice things about the Bears, but I've always had a deep respect for George Halas. "You might reduce Lombardi's coaching philosophy to a single sentence: In any game, you do the things you do best and you do them over and over and over." -- George "Papa Bear" Halas, the legendary Hall-of-Famer that was the first to study tapes of opposing teams analyze weakness.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 10 + review
AstroTurf n. an orchestrated grass-roots movement intended to appear spontaneous. 1993 Mother Jones (Sept.-Oct.): A massive letter-writing campaign...generated over 50,000 form letters and messages, sent to dozens of congresspersons. Not everyone was impressed. "Is it grassroots or Astroturf?" from the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang.
lay pipe v. to engage in any of various forms of political intrigue.
blinkmanship n. the art of diplomatic negotiations which cedes no ground until the other side backs down from a position.
belligerati (buh.LIJ.uh.rat.eye) n. Writers and other members of the intelligentsia who advocate war or imperialism.
Jawbone adj. persuasive or cajoling but noncompulsory.
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New Direction for America?
... Following up on Boz's post, Roll Call reports the Dems are about to unveil yet another new slogan: "Let's just hope this one sticks," said one Democratic staffer. "The last thing we need is more mixed messages when we're trying to win back the House and Senate." Developing: I'm not so sure that "New Direction for America" is going to last. Hotline has already pointed out that it sounds like "nude erection for America"...
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Which Direction?
I jacked this straight-up from The Corner.
Democrats Change Slogan for Their Domestic Agenda
ROLL CALL
By Erin P. Billings
Thursday, June 15; 4:55 pm
When Congressional Democrats outline their domestic priorities tomorrow, they also will be floating what will be their second attempt at a winning slogan this election cycle: "New Direction For America."
Several senior Democratic sources said they decided to adopt the new label after winning jeers both on and off Capitol Hill for their first try, "Together, America Can do Better." Until recently, that slogan -- which emerged last year -- was an umbrella theme for dozens of press events and leadership speeches.
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The Democratic Strategist
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"Mudcat" on Webb's Win & Blogs ...
The Washington Post has a column up about the VA Senate race. As you'll see, "Mudcat" believes blogs can (at least on the local level) make a difference electorally: "No question about it, the bloggers were driving this," says Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, the Roanoke-based backcountry strategist who is helping guide Webb's campaign and who was the mastermind behind Connecticut-born Mark Warner's embrace of NASCAR culture in his run for governor five years ago...
Saunders believes that even if Webb cannot match Allen's staggering $7 million campaign kitty, the challenger has shown that he can use old-fashioned grass-roots word of mouth and newfangled Internet campaigning to spread the word about this ex-Republican military man who wants to bring Reagan Democrats back to the party of their youth.
"We've got the perfect soldier to come out and campaign against George Allen," Saunders says. "In Virginia, combat boots beat cowboy boots every time. If we did it with a Connecticut Yankee, we sure as hell can do it with this guy."
But Webb's strategy is based on the notion that there's a deep well of discontent that need only be tapped to dislodge Allen from his seat.
And in places such as Norton, it's hard to see much in the way of the anger and frustration that lead people to engage in politics.
When I reeled off the big issues in the Senate race to Joyce Payne, she was quick to say, "None of that is what's on people's minds here this week. This is just a time of fun and relaxation. Sometimes you have to just chill and relax; people in Washington should try that. Really, it'll lengthen your life."
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On Blogs ...
 From National Journal's Hotline: Weekly Standard's Barnett writes, the left-wing blogosphere, "in spite of its passion and singularity of puropose," has shown "no ability to make" Dems "more electorally popular." The conventional wisdom is that blogs "are a growing force with unlimited potential," but the "dirty little secret" is that the "blogsophere's growth has flat-lined," and in many cases, "shrunk."
Why then, do Dem politicians feel an "increasingly powerful urge to genuflect before bloggers?" The "only logical answer" is that politicians still believe the blogs are an emerging and increasingly powerful force." But, if Dems were "rational, they would realize that blogs are a factor in the political culture, but are a limited force with little growth potential."
Eventually, politicians who "flock to bloggers" who use extremist rhetoric "will be asked if they're aware of the kind of company they're keeping. And, if so, how they justify keeping it" (6/15). While I certainly am a fan of the "new media," this echoes my past writings about blogs. They are a good tool, but they are not the "silver bullet" that many liberals think they are. There is a lot of truth here ...
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Unforgettable
I think Chuck Schumer and John Kerry took a page from Margaret Thatcher's book by endorsing Webb in the VA primary (but before Webb would stand a chance against Allen, he'd have to take a different page out of Lady Thatcher's book and figure out what he stands for...) Today's Unforgettable pontification from the right: "It pays to know the enemy -- not least because at some time you may have the opportunity to turn him into a friend." -- Margaret Thatcher
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Elected in ND ... From Iraq
Just caught Maj. McNamara on CNN. Not sure what his political philosophy is, but he got elected to the Grand Forks, ND City Council -- from Iraq. Not bad.
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How to Grow an Organization
I thought you would enjoy this leadership lesson from John Maxwell. Note: While the article Maxwell refers to is about business, the principles apply to conservative organizations and think tanks, as well: In his article, Talent Development: the Architecture of a Talent Pipeline That Works (PDF), Jeffery Gandz looks at ways businesses can avoid brain drain and appeal to the best and brightest potential employees.
According to Gandz, businesses with a steady flow of talent into their ranks practice the following principles:
"Zero-Talent Outages"
Talent-conscious companies always look to develop a pool of capable employees to replace retiring or transitioning workers.
"Succession not Replacement"
Companies with an eye for talent look beyond filling the gap created by a departure. They view each opening as an opportunity to find an even better worker to step into the role.
"Reputation as a Talent Magnet"
"Talent can recognize other talent." Peak performers are attracted to an atmosphere in which they can sharpen their skills by interacting with talented peers.
Gandz also warns against pitfalls that can clog the talent pipeline:
Resist the temptation to trim training and development budgets.
When the financial squeeze is in effect, don't drain your training allowances. As Gandz writes, "Training and development is usually the first casualty of budget cuts," and its absence robs a company of vital human potential.
Dodge the deep freeze.
When a company's coffers grow cold, the temptation can be to suspend all hiring until a more lucrative season. While limiting new hires can be wise, inflexibility can cause an organization to miss out on prospective all-stars.
Prune low potential personnel.
Why waste valuable training and resources on dead-end individuals? Tactfully terminate employees with limited capacity and no signs of growth.
For the complete text of Talent Development: the Architecture of a Talent Pipeline That Works, visit the Ivey Business Journal online by clicking here.
"This article is used by permission from Dr. John C. Maxwell's free monthly e-newsletter 'Leadership Wired' available at www.MaximumImpact.com."
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 9
It's terms like this that make average people disillusioned with politics and Washington. I'll look for some 'happy' additions to our political lexicon in coming days...send me suggestions as boz@campaignleadership.com.
lay pipe v. to engage in any of various forms of political intrigue. 1893 in DA; The Irish...who began by laying our water-pipes...now lay a different kind of pipe, and make our city government. 1891 Maitland Slang Dictionary. 165; Laying pipe, making arrangements to ensure the passage or defeat of some measure before a legislative body. From the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang
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Why Tax Cuts Always Work ...
In his regular column for The Hill, Dem pollster Mark Mellman explains why tax cuts continue to be a potent campaign issue: While aficionados see budget politics as zero-sum, voters do not. Voters believe, wrongly but nonetheless strongly, that hidden in the budget is what we might call "function 999" -- waste, fraud and abuse -- a category encompassing nearly half of federal spending. Were that the case we could in fact cut taxes, increase spending, eliminate the deficit and still have a little left over to waste. In voters' minds the choice is not between Social Security and tax cuts but between waste and tax cuts. I would, of course, argue with him on the facts: Clearly, there is plenty of waste to be cut from government. In this case, Mellman views the public as dupes who just don't get it. But the bottom line is that even this Dem pollster is admitting that tax cuts are a potent issue for Republicans to use.
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Dem Activist Building Email List Now...
From Hotline's " On Call" blog:Few people know the importance of organic email lists better than Zack Exley, a former Moveon.org and Kerry Internet guru, who recently started RootsPrimary.org. The site is intended to attract grassroots support -- and email addresses -- for WH'08 Dems, no matter if they've declared yet or flat out denied they're thinking about a run ...
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Some politics...
Redstate calls the prospect of Lieberman caucusing Republican a "real" possilbility, given the latest Rasmussen poll showing primary challenger Ned (lefty) Lamont gaining on the CT centrist. They also report what Kos is saying: that Lieberman can't leave without sacrificing his integrity (b/c he promised he wouldn't leave the Party). ...in other politics, Roch Lowry at The Corner has some good thoughts on the significance of the Webb victory in VA. ...the NRSC today released a new radio and tv ad for Sen. Conrad Burns (MT) (or rather, against Jon Tester). It's pretty darn good! Set in a barber shop.
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Advice From a Reader ...
Louis Constancio, a PR guru from Texas, sends us this advice on garnering Latino support: Matt:
If we're going to be effective we must start with three F's:
Faith - Most Latinos, whether Catholic or not, retain a strong connection with their religious beliefs. In fact, among the may codes of communication within the Latino community, their religous beliefs are intertwined with culture.
Family - As most people know, family is the base foundation of the culture. Family to Latinos is just as or more sacred as their religous beliefs...even to the death. As generations evolve however, Latinos are starting to leave the "nest" for education and more profitable lifestyle, but if a parent is at risk for dying or very ill, life stops and returning home is almost 100 percent.
Fiesta - Celebrating is a deep embedded communication code for Latinos. In fact, it is the very passion for this culture. Most introductions of marriages, friends and any family subjects are brought to the table during this time. If a friend is introduced at a celebration, most of the time, acceptance is normal. But, if any member of the family has a problem with an "outsider," then they may not be accepted within the circle of the family. Once accpeted however, its like removing a tenure-track professor from his/her job. They are loyal to the core.
I hope this gives you some sense of what your up against. The key is knowing how, when and where to communicate effectively. That's where I can assist you. I know this because I am a Latino. I look forward to working with you!
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I'm no stock market guru, but...
Did anyone else notice and unusually rapid, and still moving, rise in the markets during President Bush's press conference? Matt wrote yesterday about keeping up the good news so we can get on a "win streak," (though, the Post calls it " breathing room"--go figure). I'd call Rove getting off the hook is a solid single. In the face of fears over inflation, I would say that some more good movement in the markets will put President Bush way ahead in the count.
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We've Got Email
... I received this email and I thought it was instructive to share. To preserve anonymity, I have merely taken an excerpt: Matt
Thank you for the interesting information you offered us at the Texas RP convention. That was the second school I'd attended by your organization. I hope to do more in the future.
One item of which I do take issue with you: Ignoring advice during the campaign. I've tried to figure out why so many of those who are elected get into office and turn a deaf ear to the people who put them in office... ... Here is my response: Good to hear from you. I'm glad you raised this point because I am going to focus on this topic in an upcoming email (and now I will know to be clearer).
My advice is to ignore all the free "strategic" advice you will receive on a campaign. In other words, if a candidate is listening to EVERYONE, he will spend all his time reacting to others -- and will often be hearing conflicting advice. The end result is the "paralysis of analysis."
However, I want to be clear that there is a difference between ignoring "strategic" advice -- and ignoring your supporters -- and their issues.
Obviously, I would NEVER encourage politicians to ignore their supporters. I've had that happen to me, and it's never pretty. The first rule in politics is you've got to "dance with the one that brung ya." Politicians who get "too big for their britches" to talk to the "common folks" who got them elected are soon replaced.
Just to clarify: My advice is to ignore strategic or tactical campaign advice from every so-called "expert" who wants to give you free campaign advice. But I do not advise anyone to ignore their constituents or supporters.
Thanks for taking the time to contact me. I hope that helps explain my position.
All the best!
Matt
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 8
And don't forget to catch the President's press conference at 9:45 AM today!! blinkmanship n. the art of diplomatic negotiations which cedes no ground until the other side backs down from a position. 1962 Daily Northwestern (Oshkosh, WI) (Dec. 13) 6: Blinkmanship is an even chancier game than Brinksmanship. Blinksmanship...is attributed to Dean Rusk, Secretary of State. During the crux of the Cuban crisis Rusk is reported as saying, via-a-vis the U.S.-Russian position, "Were eyeball to eyeball and I think the other fellow just blinked." From the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang
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...So That's What Happened to Dewey
 We've got some political eductaion tips today from the liberal Daily Kos: Statistics 101: Polls and surveys "In the famous Literary Digest poll (which predicted Dewey beating Truman, and led to the famous picture of Truman with the newspaper saying he lost) the big problem was the sampling frame. They used a list of people with phone numbers or cars. This leaves out a lot of people, and counts some twice (even now, but this was much more so back in 1948). Not only does it leave people out, but it leaves them out in a way that is biased (it oversamples wealthy people, and wealthy people, then as now, were more likely to vote Republican). Nowadays, people get much better sampling frames, but I do not know the details of how they do this."
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Bush Pieces Together a "Win-Streak"
In baseball, rally's often start modestly. Maybe the first guy gets a walk, the second guy gets hit, the third guy strikes out, and then finally, someone hits a "dinger." If a few rally's happen, you might even get a winning streak pieced together -- which is exactly what Bush is trying to do right now. A week ago we had Bilbray's election (a solid base hit). Then, Bush hit a homerun when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed. And the surprise trip to Iraq was a solid double, in my book. Bush has pieced together a solid rally, this week. One can only hope the momentum leads to a win streak!
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Candidate in Focus: Adrian Smith
Let's see if we can't get ya'll familiar with some GOP candidates that don't make it on CNN. State Senator Adrian Smith from Gering, Nebraska recently beat out John Hanson and Jay Vavricek in the GOP primary for Nebraska's third congressional district seat. The district is safe Republican, so it's pretty much guaranteed that Smith will take over for Rep. Tom Osborne. According to the Columbus Telegram, Adrian says he "would represent Nebraska with a conservative set of principles by voting to reduce the tax burden, making sure agriculture-related issues get the attention they deserve, controlling illegal immigration and protecting constitutional rights."  Adrian hates the death tax, ardently defends gun-owner rights, supports a "moderate" form of the flat tax, and opposes amnesty. He's been a champion of low taxes for 7 years in the NE Unicameral. Here's a great quote from Adrian: "These Founders...also knew our elected officials and those who staff our government offices not to be angels either. So, while necessary, government must be strictly limited...[M]ore and more government is not the answer to our problems. In fact, more and more government often causes more and more problems. Instead, the answer is found in freeing men and women, so they may think, dream, and invent... We must put the ravenous government on a diet."
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Message to Candidates: Drop the Jargon!
From Hotline: Providence Journal's Bakst writes: business consultant/Brown Univ. prof. Dennis Michaud (R) "lapses into terms such as 'projected net present value' and 'positive externalities,' and you wonder how long it will take the image-makers and speech coaches to shape him up." This is such a common lament. The most "intelligent" candidates are usually the most out-of-touch -- and the worst communicators. Lesson for political candidates: Don't use jargon. Real people don't know what "projected net value" is -- and they sure as heck don't know how it relates to them.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 7
from wordspy.combelligerati (buh.LIJ.uh.rat.eye) n. Writers and other members of the intelligentsia who advocate war or imperialism.
"How the war fevers raged in those days after Sept. 11. The nation's syndicated belligerati were beside themselves. Columnist Michael Kelly flayed the unconscionable pacifists as pro-terrorist and evil. Charles Krauthammer argued for bombing an enemy city, anywhere."-- Michael Powell, "An Eminence With No Shades of Gray." The Washington Post, May 5, 2002
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Coulter Controversy Continues ...
My little post about Ann Coulter has proven controversial. In fact, over at Human Events, there are like 22 people who want to argue about it. Feel free to chime in ... ... In a related story, the Washington Post has a piece today on the "paper trail" of a former AEI magazine editor (today, he is President Bush's new chief domestic policy adviser).
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...So This is My Legacy???
 I just got a call from Nate from North Dakota. He reports that I have "officially changed the political culture in North Dakota." Apparently he saw (for the first time ever) another campaign "sign waving"... (If you don't know what "sign waving" is -- look to your left).
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Is Ann Coulter a Bad Influence?
We conservatives sometimes criticize pop culture icons (such as rappers, musicians, and sports heroes) for setting a bad example. Here's how the argument goes: "Sure, pop culture stars can dress and talk the way they do -- but if the average teenager does it -- he won't succeed or prosper in our society." Generally, this is good advice. Having lots of tattoos, for example, may limit your future career opportunities (if the band thing falls through). Wearing band tee shirts to a job interview may also have a detrimental affect on your career prospects. And lets be honest, most of us need a job of some sort. What are the odds of your making it to the pros as a basketball player? Like one in a million??? I'm still waiting for my band to be signed. I'm guessing that's one call that I will never receive ... The bottom line is that the "gangster" or "alternative" lifestyle can actually hurt both young and underprivileged people because it sells them a false bill of goods. It makes it harder for them to raise themselves out of poverty, for example. Liberal elites and Hollywood movie stars who perpetuate this lifestyle are actually hurting people, so the theory goes. Fair enough...
Now, I'd like to draw an analogy between these misguided "youts of America" who admire pop culture icons -- and young conservatives who posture themselves as the next controversial conservative star (yes, Ann Coulter is living that gansta lifestyle, in a sense).
Reality Check: Your odds of achieving the type of notoriety that Ann Coulter enjoys are only slightly less likely than your odds are of making it big as a rap star -- and following Coulter's example may yield you similarly negative results.
... But before I go any further, let me point out that heretofore, criticism of Coulter has been based on the argument that, while she is good at rallying the base, her rhetoric actually hurts our movement when it comes to winning converts. My argument is a bit different.
Clearly, Ann has been very successful because she is controversial. Controversy sells. She knows this.
I've witnessed this phenomenon , myself. I've written articles for many publications -- the vast majority of which were educational (not opinion) -- and the vast majority of which were generally ignored. Nobody wants to talk about my Campaigns & Elections Magazine article on how candidates and campaign managers should handle losing a political election. While this article certainly addressed an important topic, it was not "sexy" or controversial. Thus, it was not widely commented on.
Yet, there have been a few occasions where I have gotten a lot of attention. ... When I criticized the Rolling Stones -- or Terrell Owens -- for example -- my musings were suddenly deemed "newsworthy" and were picked up by several media outlets.
Lesson learned: If you want attention, just be controversial. Had I taken this lesson to heart, I would have written a lot more salacious attack articles. In fact, based on this argument, if Ann Coulter reads this and responds by calling me a "girlie man" (as she apparently did to Rich Lowry), it would probably be good news for me...
Everybody in our society wants their 15 minutes of fame. That's the whole reason people go on reality TV shows -- and Jerry Springer. ...But there is a difference between merely being "famous" and being respected.
Each of us must ask ourselves if we want to be P.T. Barnum or Ronald Reagan. Or, to give it a pop culture flavor: do we want to be Paris Hilton or Reese Witherspoon? I would much rather be respected as a professional than merely be "famous." I guess I'm a "Reese."
But, as they say, "politics is Hollywood for ugly people," and I fear there are a growing number of young people out there paying attention. Because of the new media (which I am generally a fan of), young people now have the ability to post blogs before they have matured as writers and people. And if they're not careful, they will take public stances they won't want to back up in 10 years..
Now, I have no problem with being controversial. "Extremism in defense of liberty" is no vice -- but extremism for the sake of sensationalism, is.
Thanks to the hard work of many conservative leaders, there is a growing number of young conservatives who want to grow up to be the next Jonah Goldberg, Ann Coulter, or Laura Ingraham.
But with opportunity comes responsibility. Our celebrities -- even conservative pundits -- have a responsibility to be role models.
I hope that young conservatives realize that selling controversy (for the sake of controversy) can be more detrimental to their future than getting a tattoo is . Either way, you wake up in 10 years and wish it wasn't there. But at least the tattoo can be removed. The worldwide web is not as forgiving.
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To: Everyone; From: VoteForMe@SaveTheIncumbents.com
From The Washington Post: Picture from: http://www.astro.washington.edu/vmw/Spam.jpg'A new loophole in election spending regulations is likely to produce a torrent of unsolicited e-mails to voters -- and widespread complaints about political spam -- as the midterm elections approach this fall, political consultants say... The loophole is "potentially breathtaking," said Roger Alan Stone of Advocacy Inc., an e-mail address retailer. "It provides an enormous opportunity for political campaigns," agreed Max Fose of Integrated Web Strategy, which also sells e-mail addresses to political campaigns. Both men are expanding their staffs in anticipation of what they expect to be a multimillion-dollar surge in unregulated campaign spending via the Internet.  The e-mail exemption, which was approved by the Federal Election Commission in March, might become the next big avenue for campaign funding abuses, some experts warn. Heavy spenders, such as individuals or groups not affiliated with campaigns, could use mass e-mailings to alter the outcome of key congressional races and still remain anonymous, a result that runs counter to the intention of federal election laws... The FEC voted unanimously March 26 not to regulate political communication on the Internet, including e-mails, blogs and the creation of Web sites. The commission had decided two years earlier to exempt all Internet activity from regulation, but that ruling was overturned by a federal judge who ordered the FEC to write rules that apply to at least some parts of cyberspace. Bloggers, who are a fast-rising force in politics, pushed hard (with the help of their readers) to convince the commission that their writings should not be considered for the purposes of regulation the same as campaign contributions. In the end, they won." Hat-Tip: Betsy's Page
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 6
From the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang:Jawbone 1. adj. persuasive or cajoling but noncompulsory. 1969 Us News and World Report (Apr. 28) 46: Q: Are you saying the "jawbone approach is dead for this Administration? A yes, if you mean trying to preach people into forgoing wage or price changes that market conditions encourage. 2. v. to admonish or persuade, esp. to urge voluntary compliance upon. 1989 CBS This Morning (CBS-TV) (Feb, 28). The President will weigh in with a little old-fashioned jawboning and even some arm-twisting.
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Wrongly-Attributed ...
Update: The post has been taken down. Crisis has been averted. All is right with the world ...Dear Readers: I want to make it clear that I did not write this! Now, because this blog is called Matt Lewis & The News, I understand that folks assume I post every single thing. And I am confident this was an entirely honest mistake. Yet, it was a mistake. While the host does bear a certain responsibility for what is said on their site, it is wrong to attribute the opinions of guest bloggers to them. You may say, " This was posted on Matt Lewis' blog" -- that's fine -- but don't attribute the quote to the wrong person. A close look at the posting shows this: " posted by Boz at 10:39 AM" (Boz is my intern). It is not unusual for guests to post on others sites: JoeTrippi.com, Hugh Hewitt, Radley Balco, and Wonkette (for example) all have "guest bloggers," from time to time. Clearly, somebody from the Huckabee President 2008 blog made a mistake. I give them credit for aggressively monitoring the blogosphere, even if their excitement got the best of them. But this should not be construed in any way as an endorsement of the governor (or his candidacy). In the past, I have written about governor Huckabee's campaign from the perspective of campaign analysis. I wrote that he was unwise to pick a fight with the Club for Growth and not to campaign at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. On another occasion, I reported that he was extremely well-liked in Iowa. I stand behind each of those statements. Until now, it has all been campaign analysis. Sure, it was my opinion -- but the opinions expressed were only regarding the "horserace" aspect of the campaign -- not "positions." However, this incident means I probably should point out that as a conservative, I tend to agree with the Club for Growth's criticism of the governor, regarding fiscal issues. That's my position. I regret that this incident happened. And again, I am confident it was a mistake. The big lesson to learn here is that the internet is very dangerous and very fast and that whatever you and I post (or, in this case, don't post) lives on forever (and ever).
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Strickland Courts Taft Supporters
Ohio's Viking Spirit blog is reporting that Supporters of unpopular Ohio governor Taft are now supporting liberal Dem candidate Ted Strickland. While it is unusual for donors and supporters to support candidates in an opposite political party, in this case, ideology and personal vendetta's trump partisanship: Taft and Strickland are both liberals and establishment insiders. Blackwell, conversely, is a conservative outsider -- in the image of Ronald Reagan. While Taft's folks may want revenge on Blackwell (for running away from Taft in the GOP primary), they are more likely hanging an albatross around Strickland's neck (talk about the law of unintended consequences!). And by seeking out the support, Strickland may be setting himself up as a hypocrite; he criticizes Taft publicly, yet is courting the support of Taft's confidants. Note: It's not just grassroots supporters and donors that Strickland is courting. According to the Toledo Blade, he has sought advice and counsel from "Taft's Brain": In addition to taking money from the people who propelled Mr. Taft to the governor's office, Mr. Strickland also has met with the controversial architect of the governor's career.
In April, Mr. Strickland attended an event hosted by Brian Hicks, Mr. Taft's former chief of staff who was convicted last year of failing to disclose vacation stays at Noe's Florida home on his annual ethics statement.
Taft's supporters are ironically underscoring Blackwell's argument for him -- that he is the "anti-Taft candidate" in the race.
(Granted, we've always known that -- but now we have a paper trail linking Strickland to friends of the most unpopular governor in American history.)
It occurs to me that Blackwell is darn-near immune from the anti-Republican political environment that is a drag on nearly every other Republican candidate in the nation.
The standard political rules don't apply to Blackwell because he's no standard Republican. More than any other Republican in America, he has the potential to transcend politics and reach what can only be described as "greatness."
In short, for conservatives, he is the great black hope.
Even more interestingly, Strickland's are playing right into this advantage.
If Ohio voters are sick of politics as usual, Blackwell offers the starkest contrast from the corrupt Taft regime.
It is ironic that Taft's supporters are helping make Blackwell's case for him.
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Hold the phone Nancy...
Apparantly PA Rep. John Murtha has announced he'll run for Majority Leader if the Dems take the House. See TNR's The Plank, or The Corner.
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Rush's Example Isn't that Special ...
Like RS Politics over at Red State, I also heard Rush make the point yesterday that Rahm Emanuel's talking points about losing the race in CA were similar to Al Qaida's talking points about the death of Al-Zarqawi. Here's what Democrat Rahm Emanuel had to say about Busby's loss on Tuesday: "In an election cycle that is shaping up to be a change vs. the status quo contest, Francine Busby has shown that a strong change message can make even former members of Congress vulnerable in deeply red Republican districts." ... And here are the terrorists about Al-Zarqawi's death: "The death of our leaders is life for us. It will only increase our persistence in continuing holy war so that the word of God will be supreme." ... Of course, Rush is making the point that the DCCC and terrorists use the same techniques. But guess what? EVERYONE uses the same techniques. ... The definition of PR is taking a lemon and making lemonade. This is a non-story ...
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 5 & Review
King-of-the-Hill, n. refers to a special rule for sequencing, debating and voting on competing amendments. If more than one version receives a majority of votes, the one with the largest margin prevails. Click "full post" for a review of this week's words.
A recap of this weeks revelations of the lexicon of politics. All from the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang, ed. Grant Barrett.
boondoggle n. [claimed to have been coined as a name for an ornamental leather cord] an extravagant and useless project. Now colloq.
1935 Wisconsin Rapids Daily Tribune (Apr. 11) 4:
That New York relief investigation has cleared up one thing that has always bothered us. It seems that thingumabob that fits into the hootnnanny is called a boon doggle.
wheel-horse n. an instrumental or hard-working party member
1892 Fresno Weekly Republican (CA-May 2): Sheriff Grant was a wheel-horse, but he is a dead duck in the political puddle hereafter.
boodler n. a person, esp. a politician, who seeks or accepts bribes; grafter.
1984 P.J. Buchanan in New York Post (Aug. 31) 33:
But whether or not these boodlers are given "input" into spending $30 billion in social programs is our business.
red-headed Eskimo n. a precisely targeted bill, law, or piece of legislation.
2004 Balitmore Sun (Feb 18) 4B:
"The legislation is what those around Annapolis call a "red-headed Eskimo"--a bill designed to aid just one person, business, or interest."
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... on "Going Negative"
... A more accurate term is "comparison advertising." Aggressive contrast campaigns are a healty bi-product of democracy -- and have been with us since this country's inception. Our political system thrives when we encourage a healthy rough-and-tumble debate over the issues, and give the voters enough information to make up their minds. An important distinction: I would never encourage anyone to engage in spreading lies. That's truly "negative." But if it's on the record, there's nothing wrong with good hardball politics. In fact, it's healthy for democracy ...
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You Caught Me...
When there's an op-ed in a major newspaper explicitly regarding campaign communications, and I don't post it, that means you caught me in a dereliction of duty. I was short a dime yesterday and so just got to yesterdays Washington Post--and forgive me--but this piece discusses John Geer's defense of "going negative." Recall from Teaching Elephants to Talk that negative is half the effort in staying on message because a candidate must show contrast. Whenever a candidate contrasts himself/herself with another candidate, it's not good enough to just say "I believe this" and "I believe that," but telling people (over and over again) "what this means to you" also means telling them over and over again "what the other guy means to you." That's negative, as Frank Sinatra says "that's life." So I've learned for mentor-Matt.
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Best Week in Weeks ...
Yesterday I opined that special elections are not indicative of national trends. For example, in 2004, some people thought Stephanie Herseth's victory in the special election for South Dakota's Congressional seat would translate into more Democrat pickups in November. Of course, it did not. While I stick by that maxim, I also understand that perception is reality. Therefore, if people believe a special election victory is a bellwether -- then, in a sense -- it is ... Republicans are in desperate need of good news and optimism. And Tuesday's elections (coupled with the death of Al-Zarqawi) have finally provided us with the first good news in months.
Ultimately, it is possible these events will translate into renewed optimism, which in turn could translate into more Republican activists "jumping back on the bandwagon" and getting involved in campaigns (be it thru donations, volunteering, or merely voting.)
They say: "Nothing succeeds like success" and "Americans love a winner."
Let's hope this is the start of something good. Let the "Big Mo" continue ...
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Writing Off Riley
After Tuesday's victory for AL Gov. Bob Riley, I pulled up this Stu Rothenberg column from March. It's a good example of how things can change (based on the political environment) -- and of how political prognostication is a dangerous business ...
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 4
I don't know what this is in honor of, I just think it's cool. (From the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang, ed. Bennett.)
red-headed Eskimo n. a precisely targeted bill, law, or piece of legislation.
2004 Balitmore Sun (Feb 18) 4B:
"The legislation is what those around Annapolis call a "red-headed Eskimo"--a bill designed to aid just one person, business, or interest."
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On Squishes and Red Tories ...
Glad to see someone is reporting the truth. Despite the revisionist history of the liberal media, smart politico's have always known that it's smart to pick a side and stand for something. ... As Rush says, I'm still waiting for that book to come out called: "Great Moderates in American History." ... Morton Blackwell says, "Don't treat the good guys like you treat the bad guys," and "You can't make friends of your enemies by making enemies of your friends" -- both maxims that apply to squishy Republicans (or as my friends in Canada call 'em, " Red Tories"). ... Another famous saying is Texas is that, "There's nothing in the middle of the road but yellow lines and dead Armadillos." That's not to say that Members of Congress shouldn't work together in a bi-partisan fashion to sometimes reach a compromise. But it is to say that, as a rule, squish's don't get ahead by being squishy.
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"To the center!" no. wait. "To the right!" no. wait...
Investor's Business Daily extrapolates the LibLinc's rough road ahead to make a sweeping point that moderates will hurt in the coming elections... "It's a switch from decades past when politics tilted toward the middle and being a moderate was a good way to avoid controversy and pick up votes from both sides." ...Higgins goes on to very comprehensively detail examples of his point. Well worth 5 minutes.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 3
In honor of Rep. Mark Steven Kirk's conservative victory in blocking the "bridge to nowhere" yesterday: 
boondoggle n. [claimed to have been coined as a name for an ornamental leather cord] an extravagant and useless project. Now colloq. 1935 Wisconsin Rapids Daily Tribune (Apr. 11) 4: That New York relief investigation has cleared up one thing that has always bothered us. It seems that thingumabob that fits into the hootnnanny is called a boon doggle.
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Infiltrating Conservative Talk Radio
This is funny. At the "Yearly Kos" liberal convention, a "stay at home dad" who "spends his time calling talk radio" is running a seminar on how to infiltrate conservative talk radio. In other news, he will also be holding a seminar on tidy housekeeping, arts and crafts, and recipe's that please.
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Big CA Race
According to Hotline's " On Call" blog, NRCC head Tom Reynolds had this to say about Republican Brian Bilbray's win in San Diego, yesterday: "National Democrats must come to terms with the fact that momentum for the midterm elections will not materialize simply because they preordain it in the media or because they ask their special interest friends to buy it for them.
"The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues." ... All politics is local. Somewhere, Tip O'Neil is smiling. Bilbray will face Democrat Francine Busby on the ballot in November. The truth is that I think we tend to put too much emphasis on these special elections. Regardless of who wins, I don't see them as a harbinger of things to come. Still, it makes for good conversation.
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I continue to be impressed by Mitt Romney's early presidential campaign performance. Today, he's stepping it up another notch and pushing to defend marriage.
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P.Kennedy wants to be treated like an African-American man
"Fresh from rehab, Rep. Patrick Kennedy said yesterday he wants to be treated like an African-American from Washington if and when he gets charged for crashing his car on Capitol Hill" so reports the New York Daily News. Jonah Goldberg over at The Corner, "is in awe of this effort to turn lemons into political lemonade." Me too.
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Lexicon of Politics: Day 2
Election Day! Let's honor the most dedicated Republicans.  wheel-horse n. an instrumental or hard-working party member 1892 Fresno Weekly Republican (CA-May 2): Sheriff Grant was a wheel-horse, but he is a dead duck in the political puddle hereafter.
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Happy Ronald Wilson Reagan Day!
BTW--Ronald Reagan is my hero. That's the first line of Matt's book--so you can see why I work for him... I'm spinnin 6/6/06 into a happy day. While, yes, there are some very special people that claim that Ronald (6 letters) Wilson (6) Reagan (6) is the Beast of Revelations--let's just take the opportunity to have another day with an excuse to skip the chores and read An American Life, one more time.
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Won't Find my Dirt on Facebook.com; Poor Jonathan Frist
I'm glad I learned my lesson early. In case you're not under 22 years old, you probably aren't too familiar with the website FaceBook.com. According to Alexa, it's the 57th most visited site on the net--and it's a monster cash-cow because as a social network for college (and recently high-school) students, the site is able to target advertising based on how students describe themselves. For example, I can  advertise something to conservative, single, male, college students that listen to Dave Matthews Band, go to school in DC, and live in Alaska. That's some powerful stuff--which is why the two Harvard students that created the site are fending off bids from all over Silicon Valley...(seriously, read on)...
College students post pictures on the site too, and can belong to FaceBook "groups" that can share messages and host together a group--specific FaceBook website. The Georgetown College Republicans and my Take Back Georgetown Day both had these types of groups--and their membership is available for anyone to see. Some people get pretty silly with group names and also with describing themselves--which means some politicians' kids are ripe for the media's picking...
Today, Roll Call--in it's "Heard on the Hill" section--reports attention being paid to the FaceBook profile of Jonathan Frist, Bill Frist's middle son. The Majority Leader's Office is defending/distancing itself from Jon's membership in a group called "Jonathan Frist appreciation For 'Waking Up White People' Group" and another group that has in its description: "No Jews Allowed. Just Kidding. No seriously."
Sen. Frist's youngest son, Bryan, writes this in his profile: "I was born an American by Gods Amazing Grace. Lets bomb some people."
A lot of important college students do not have profiles. I went to school with Pierce Bush, the President's nephew, and he certainly did. As does one of the Olsen twins, but not the Bush daughters (believe me, I've searched). It's almost hard, seriously, not to have some incriminating stuff on your profile. Someone takes a picture of you doing something dumb at a party, and it's 'tagged' to your profile.
You get upwards of 10 invitations to join different groups during a normal week, and sometimes, you just accept them all because you don't want to offend the crazy friend that invited you, and because who would have though anybody really cared. I learned my lesson though. Here are a list of groups that I've been invited to join and declined just in case a future employer looks (and they are now, especially financial firms): "Clinton for Dictator," "Jesus is nobody's home-boy, but He's still way cool and agrees that moral relativism sucks," "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy," "You Forget Poland," "For Every Animal You Don't Eat, I will Eat Three," "Hillary Clinton for President…of Hell," "Hoyas concerned about the future hegemony of the Pacific Rim..and China's scary army.”
You get the picture. These social networks are the new HUGE trend. Myspace.com, which is Facebook's predecessor, is the 5th most trafficked site on the internet! It's a shame that aspiring politicians and the kin of public servants cannot participate.
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Ok. So it didn't take a genious to see this coming. This was posted on the Washington Post at 3:16 pm ... "Critics charge that Bush is reviving the issue now in an election-year ploy to placate conservative voters who, polls show, have grown disaffected with the president for various reasons.
Senate Democratic leader Harry M. Reid of Nevada said in an e-mail to supporters today that the president should be concentrating on record-high gas prices, the war in Iraq or skyrocketing health care costs rather than same-sex marriage.
'But there's an ugly truth: it's election season and down-in-the-polls Republicans are turning to their same old playbook -- fear and division,' Reid wrote."
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Pandering or Kept Promise???
I can predict that -- without much fear of contradiction -- the proposal for a Marriage Amendment will be criticized by the left as an act of desperation... Critics will accuse Bush of trying to stir up his base with a hot-button issue just before the midterm elections.
But the truth is that Bush is wise to change the conversation. In doing so, he is putting the focus of attention to an issue he wins on (and temporarily off of tough issues like Iraq).
And don't forget: one man's "wedge issue" is another man's "campaign promise."
Granted, it is unlikely this issue will help Bush as much as it did in '04 (when he had the benefit of leftist politicians and activist judges who were breaking the law and conducting same-sex marriages).
Still, this is one of those occasions when both political pragmatism and doing the right thing converge.
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The Secret about the blogosphere
Actually, this is just an attempt to squeeze two posts into one. Firstly, did the term "secret" raise your eyebrow? The Washington Post this morning has another, "uhh, duh--I always knew that, but for some reason I'm still going to read the article" column. This time about Americans' fetish with secrecy. Now, aside from the USA Today blandness of the piece, and it's "uh-duh" nature, the author makes one good point: maybe the reason people don't care about pork-barrel spending is that it's not a secret! If that's (sadly) true, then I'm going to gear-up and run a secret campaign for Congress...but maybe that's actually already happening. With hundreds of soft-money groups putting up "draft so & so" for President websites and hosting "draft so & so" rallies, the "secret" campaign may already be upon us. I just joined "Draft Newt 2008." Jonathan Adler at The Corner, just a minute ago blogged about this piece from the Cleavland Plain Dealer about blogs' influence in politics . These blogs are the most influencial in the Ohio races. Blogging is obviously the newest big deal in media, but how big can it get? Interestingly, many cable news shows have blogger run-downs on the weekends, and some papers including now Washington DC's newest paper, The Examiner, have columns writen by bloggers. We bloggers are good at revealing secrets...
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Unpacking the Lexicon of Politics
In a selfish ploy to help myself become better equipped to silence my red-diaper doper baby professors at Georgetown, I'll post one word from the Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang every morning. Today, in the spirit of the front page Washington Post column on William Jefferson, as well as in light of tomorrow's CA-50 election to replace Duke Cunningham, we start with: boodler n. a person, esp. a politician, who seeks or accepts bribes; grafter. 1984 P.J. Buchanan in New York Post (Aug. 31) 33: But whether or not these boodlers are given "input" into spending $30 billion in social programs is our business.
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Pics From TX GOP Convention
Upon arriving at the Texas GOP Convention, I knew there were going to be some characters. Aside from this fellow (who told me he once ran for governor), there were a few anti-Perry signs.  ( to see more pictures, click below.)
The Perry folks did a good job of advance work. Before you even got to your seat, there was a Perry for Governor sign waiting for you ...
Of course, I was at the convention to speak to about 500-plus candidates and activists. Here I am pictured with a delegate who attended the training. Texans are good patriotic folks, and there were plenty of flag shirts and red, white, and blue to be seen ...
Mingling was fun. But I realized that in order to get a great shot of the floor, I would need to hit the VIP area. Luckily, as a speaker, I was able to secure the credentials ...
It was worth it. Even before people started to file in, the view of the floor was breathtaking. You never get over the excitement of a big political convention. It was a blast!
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No worries, it's still pretty darn RED
Congressional Quarterly has a SPECTACULAR map with projections and info on all the federal races. It's the best one (interactive!) I've ever seen. If you're at all like me (and Matt, I presume), you'll spend way to much time playing around with it.
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GOP: Play Ball?
E.J. Dionne writing in the WPost thinks the House GOP is throwing a "brushback pitch" with all the intimidating rhetoric and threats to scare away those with the gusto to look into corruption on the hill. He puts these words in my Congressman's mouth (Sensenbrenner, Chairman of House Judiciary Committee): "Nice little Justice Department you have there, Mr. Attorney General. Too bad if anything were to happen to it. Stop messing with us before we mess with you." It's an interesting analogy, but more worth your time is the response by Captain's Quarters (see: Eine Kleine Chin Musik).
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Even if conservatives doubt it sometimes...
Pit-bull progressives are squirming at the rise of the conservative movement. Matt just forwarded me an email from Peter Leyden whose the new director of the recently concieved New Politics Institute--an offshoot of the New Democrat Network PAC. "A top priority for NPI going forward will be building out what we call a "strategic network" of more leading tech, media and demographic experts who are motivated to use their private sector know-how to help change politics." According to their website, 1/3 of NPI's focus is on dealing with "the rise of the conservative movement." It appears to be a gripe-fest of angry powerful liberal media mogles and Democratic strategists to study ways to undermine conservative strangleholds on talk-radio and in the blogosphere. But their line-up is nothing short of impressive...
According to Leyden: "The New Politics Institute started with a strong core founding team and a diverse group of fellows who spanned a range of political perspectives in the broader progressive community. Some of the original group included Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, who runs DailyKos, the largest political blog in the world; Joe Trippi, the out-of-the-box campaign manager of Howard Dean; Cecile Richards, a longtime champion of progressive causes and then president of America Votes; Sergio Bendixen, a top pollster and political strategist, and Mark Penn, who is best known as President Clinton's pollster and political advisor for his second term. The network also included Andy and Deborah Rappaport, innovative investors in political startups; Gina Glantz, senior advisor to Andy Stern at the path-breaking Service Employees International Union (SEIU); and Jamie Daves, an entrepreneur seeking new ways to finance media with a mission.
The group of fellows expanded over the months to include those with different expertise, including Luis Ubinas, the leader of McKinsey's west coast media practice and an expert in television; Jennifer Nix, an innovator in short, quick political books; distinguished political scientist and author Ruy Texeira; and Tim Chambers, a leader of Sony's Advanced Media Platforms. Other top professionals, like generational expert William Strauss or Arve Overland, head of an interactive advertising agency, became part of our network by writing reports or making presentations in Washington DC."
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San Antonio Update
Just finished the training and am exhausted. The good news is that the training was very well received! Tomorrow, I'll be checking out the view from the floor of the largest political convention in the world. I'm hoping to post some pictures this weekend. One note: There is some obvious conservative resentment of Bush and the RNC, down here. Immigration is a hot topic. It will be interested to see the kind of ovation some of the speakers get during the actual convention speeches ...
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Paul Ryan is my man--for Budget Committee Chair
As you know, Jim Nussle running for Governor of Iowa leaving the Budget Committee Chairmanship to be filled. Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-that's where I'm from!!) must win this race, not one of Jerry Lewis' RINO compatriots. Here's what RedState says...
"Since being elected in 1998, he has found himself in the foxhole of nearly every critical conservative battle when the bullets were still flying overhead. Ryan has busied himself with legislating, introducing bold, conservative ideas ranging from big personal accounts in Social Security to completely overhauling the federal budget process. He has been there on bellwether votes like the conservative budget alternative and unnoticed, procedural votes to enforce the budget. In short, Paul Ryan is one of us, and more, he just might get the job. Many in Leadership circles like him, and his competition is weak. Ander Crenshaw (FL) is an appropriator (that should disqualify him outright), and Jim Ryun (KS), although a nice guy, hardly fits anyone's portrait of a tough, hard-nosed pit bull capable of going up against the forces of big government.
But all that is for later. In the meantime, Mr. Ryan has an important bill for us to consider and lend our support for-the Legislative Line Item Veto (H.R. 4890). Thanks to an agreement with conservatives to support the budget resolution, it will be voted on in the next few weeks. More information below the fold."
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What happened to Santorum?
The wires ( here's the Hotline link) are jumping in reaction to the latest Rasmussen Report that puts Bob Casey over Santorum by 23 points. Captain's Quarters has a reaction well worth reading. Of course, this should sound signal an emergency to the NRC and NRSC: Santorum not only motivates concerned conservatives and especially Catholics (he's a Knight of Columbus) to get out to vote and get out their checkbooks, but he also is one of the only Senators that can be credited with keeping the Senate GOP in check, or at least trying to. With poll results like these, we must ask ourselves, would President Bush's numbers really go up if he righted himself?
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gotta hand it to Hillary
The amount of money she has raised for her re-election campaign is mind-boggling. It looks like her current $39.3 million will race Kathleen McFarland and John Spencer's combined <$800,000. In a way, I'm glad that Rick Lazio, Ed Cox, or another formidable candidate isn't going going to run against her. If polls close on Hillary, her Senate fundraising would get a boost that would just be rolled into her 08 prez bid. And with the FEC voting yesterday to not contrain 527 donations (Dems rock the GOP on this front), we can expect Hillary to bankroll in excess of the obscene amount of soft money that Kerry did on 04.
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"Fantastic in Iowa"?
Absolutely. I suspect this story could be told for many states. From the Washington Times Inside Politics: Iowa Republican Party Chairman Ray Hoffmann says he hasn't seen any signs of erosion in the Republican Party's base. "The economy is fantastic here, unemployment is 3.8 percent, corn prices are up. Things are looking good." Mr. Hoffman, a stockbroker and owner of an Italian restaurant, says, "I live in northwest Iowa, which is the base of the Republican Party, and if there were rumblings, I would be the first to know about it. I really don't see out here that people are bothered by what is going on in Washington, though immigration does come up quite a bit." But "the Republicans do have a fault," Mr. Hoffmann told reporter Donald Lambro of The Washington Times. "We don't know how to tell our story [about the economy]. Maybe our new [White House] press secretary, Tony Snow, will be able to tell it." (emphasis added)
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Campaigning on the web: Study shows...
Conclusions from a recent Bivings Group study as reported on Hotline...
1) "Challengers are running more aggressive Internet campaigns than incumbents." Incumbent websites "tend to be safer and less creative than those of challengers" because they are "usually the favorites" and have the ability to "build upon their current level of pre-existing support." In turn, "challengers are more likely to take chances online in an effort to secure votes."
2) Despite the difference in the use of a Spanish alternative and RSS, tactics used by Dems and GOPers "were essentially identical."
3) Due to "the demographics of the candidate running for office and the limitations of the campaigns themselves," not many campaigns are blogging. Also, "there is a perception among many political consultants and candidates that blogging is a risky strategy." Some "worry that by fully participating in the blogosphere, they will be dragged further to the left or right."
4) Candidates from both sides of the aisle have placed their radio and TV commercials on their websites, "embracing this technology to a great extent than blogs and podcasts." Since "multimedia on websites is an extension of more traditional broadcast media tactics that campaigns are well versed in," it has developed into a "common feature on campaign websites" ("The Internet's Role in Political Campaigns," 5/23).
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Viguerie, the back and forth continues...
Remember Richard Viguerie's "Bush's Base Betrayal" piece in the WPost? Remember David Winston's bite back in Roll Call? Remember Matt's poignant defense of Viguerie? (Scroll down to May 23rd). Peter Wehner, Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of Strategic Initiatives, opined the following in an e-mail sent to unknown recipients...(and Viguerie responds...)
This is Wehner's email:
Now
"Sixty-five months into Bush's presidency, conservatives feel betrayed... The main cause of conservatives' anger with Bush is this: He talked like a conservative to win our votes but never governed like a conservative." -- Richard Viguerie, "Bush's Base Betrayal," The Washington Post, Sunday, May 21, 2006
Then
"[Richard Viguerie], who also is a leading fund-raiser for conservative candidates, indicated he would not support Reagan in 1984, adding: 'I'm very disillusioned with a president that walks away from the Soviet Union.'" -- "Conservative Leader Blasts Reagan on Plane Reaction," Associated Press, September 8, 1983
"'Just like Jimmy Carter gave conservatives the back of the hand, we see the same thing happening in the Reagan administration,'" said Richard Viguerie, the direct-mail wizard who is the leading fund-raiser for conservative candidates and causes. 'Almost every conservative I have talked to in the last two months has been disappointed in the initial appointments to the Reagan cabinet,' Viguerie said."-- "Conservatives Angry with Reagan," Associated Press, January 27, 1981
"'The White House slapped us in the face,' says Richard A. Viguerie, the conservative direct-mail expert. 'The White House is saying you don't have a constituency we're concerned about. We don't care about you.'" -- "For Reagan and the New Right, the Honeymoon Is Over," Washington Post, July 21, 1981
"[M]any longtime conservative activists are not buying Reagan's rhetoric. 'The emperor has no clothes on; just about every conservative I know is now acknowledging it,' said Viguerie." -- "Reagan Seeks to Calm His Right-Wing Critics" Los Angeles Times, September 6, 1987
"In other important matters he [Reagan] has changed sides and he is now allied with his former adversaries, the liberals, the Democrats and the Soviets," said Viguerie." -- "Conservatives Hit Reagan on Treaty," Los Angeles Times' December 5, 1987
"Eight years after Reagan's nomination for president, the conservative movement is directionless" -- Richard Viguerie, "What Reagan Revolution?" The Washington Post, August 21, 1988
Here's Viguerie's response to the White House:
Apparently the White House's response to my article in the May 21 Washington Post is to send out an e-mail from Peter H. Wehner, Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives, consisting of six quotes by me criticizing Ronald Reagan during his presidency.
That's a lot easier than trying to respond to my arguments. That's a lot easier than trying to explain away the many examples I give of how Bush has betrayed the conservative movement. And that is standard operating procedure for this White House: Put the spotlight on the president's critic, rather than respond to the critic's arguments.
Peter, I plead guilty to your implied criticism of me. I am, indeed, a consistent conservative. I put loyalty to conservative principles above loyalty to the Republican Party or a politician.
Yes, I followed that policy even during the Reagan presidency. President Reagan was a hero to me and most conservatives. I voted for him in 1980 and 1984, and the conservative organizations that used my direct mail services helped elect him to the White House. But he was not perfect by any means, and his administration disappointed conservatives on a number of issues. Reagan's true friends were those who would tell him when he was not governing as a conservative, such as the appointments of Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy to the Supreme Court, the tax increases of 1982 and 1983, and signing into law the amnesty of illegal aliens in 1986.
As I explain in my forthcoming book, Conservatives Betrayed,
This is why conservatives must maintain their independence. Our job as conservatives is not to be mouthpieces for any administration, but to give credit where credit is due, and to give criticism where criticism is due.
This is why the proper role for the conservative movement is to act as a Third Force in American politics, rather than a third party. Our constant goal is to return the Republican Party to conservative principles and to move the Democratic Party to the right as well.
In the 1960s we conservatives learned how to nominate a conservative (Barry Goldwater) for the presidency. During the 1970s and in 1980, we conservatives learned how to nominate and elect a conservative (Ronald Reagan) as president. The remaining task for conservatives is to nominate and elect a president who will govern as a conservative.
One final word, Peter. I knew Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush is no Ronald Reagan. Bush's presidency follows in the tradition of Big Government Democrats and Republicans like Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard M. Nixon, and George H. W. Bush. That is not a conservative line-up!
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