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More Politics Lost ...
 Peter Beinart has a review of Joe Klein's new book, Politics Lost, in today's Washington Post Book World. First of all, I must tip my hat to whoever is behind Joe Klein's PR campaign. In the last week or so, I've read countless reviews -- and seen Mr. Klein give countless interviews about the book. In fact, this is the second time I've written about it (and I just picked up my copy yesterday.) (You can read my first article, here.) As far as I can tell, the books' message isn't that political consultants are all bad (it would be a shame if candidates extracted that message from the book). Candidates like Reagan and Clinton benefit greatly by surrounding themselves with smart political operatives who can share their experience and political acumen. The danger is when weak candidates allow hired guns to seize control of their vision and water-down their message. Not all consultants are good. And even if they are good, that doesn't mean they should be making policy decisions. Recently, I authored an article for Campaigns & Elections Magazine on the topic of "Things you must know before hiring a consultant." If you are planning on running for office someday, I recommend you check it out (PDF). And I'll keep you posted on what I learn from actually reading the book ...
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Independent Thinking ...
Today's Hotline predicts an Independent Presidential run in '08: "The '08 presidential is going to be our generation's 1960 as far as level of interest, amount of money, transition in technology and importance of debate. Don't think someone's ego isn't going to get the best of them when it comes to running as an indie. And if they know they can't pass certain GOP or Dem litmus tests, a third way will be appealing. The internet makes launching a third party bid a million times easier. This isn't going away. "
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Atlas Shrugged Movie?
 According to Variety, Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged "may finally be brought to the bigscreen after years of false starts." As was evidenced by previous failed attempts, it won't be easy to adapt this book into a movie. The primary difficulty is that any adaptation requires leaving some things on the cutting room floor. However, true devotee's of the book will likely object to any edits. On a positive note, this is a chance for mainstream Americans to be exposed to a film that reinforces the message that individualism should be rewarded by society, and that socialism and dictatorship should be eschewed.
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Too Much Voter Contact???
Recently, at campaign training seminars, I've been fielding lots of questions on the danger of "overwhelming" voters with too much info -- or too many contacts. As such, I thought I would put my thoughts in writing. First of all, I find it ironic that candidates and activists are concerned about the dangers of too much voter contact. The vast majority of the time, the real problem campaigns face is that they don't have enough resources to reach voters. Nevertheless, students are perpetually worried about the dangers of "turning voters off" or annoying people. The first thing to know about voter contact is that everything effective political campaigns do could be considered "annoying."If you don't like being annoying, then politics is probably not the best business for you to be in. As Morton Blackwell says, "Nothing moves in politics unless it's pushed." Being in politics means being a bit pushy. Door-to-Door, voter mail, email spam, telemarketing calls ... etc. The list goes on and on. Of course, you and I know that the candidates who do these things tend to win. Nobody is going to reward you with a vote for not bothering them. According to Phillip Stutts, who ran the RNC's 72-Hour Task Force for the Bush/Cheney '04 campaign, the RNC did a test with this in Michigan in 2002. The test clearly showed that at nine contacts it starts to level off-- but up to nine, voter turnout increases after every contact.
Nine times is a lot of contact. And it is important to note that these nine contacts are defined as personal contacts. This doesn't count the number of times voters see you on TV or hear your radio ad, etc. I would venture to say that there is little danger your campaign will have to worry about having more than 9 personal contacts with a voter. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. There is always the outside possibility that too much voter contact could backfire. In a small population state with a big race (like South Dakota a few years ago), there is the danger of over-saturation. Still, I think the real culprit isn't too much contact, but rather ineffective or inappropriate contact. If your voter contact is targeted toward the right audience -- and is well produced -- you have little to worry about. Again, for most candidates, worrying about too much voter contact is a happy dilemma. It's like having "too much money." Most candidates ought to worry about not having enough money to contact voters a minimum number of times. But I wanted to address it. The next time someone asks, I'll just direct them to this little rant...
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What? Our Training isn't Good Enough?
According to the Fix, expense reports show Bill Frist has been getting schooled on communications ... I see how it is.
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The Hill has an article about how Members of Congress with presidential aspirations are using podcasts as a way to build their political base: "Presidential contenders 'are really at this point looking at ways to reach out to new people, grow the size of their list,' said Brent Blackaby, co-founder of Blackrock Associates, a California-based online political consulting firm that lists Clark among its clients. 'When the time comes to do something with it, they already have a huge pool of people."
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Nice Backdrop
 The Dems have found a good backdrop for their photo-op. Too bad most of them wasted gas to do it...
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Ari: It's a TV Show!
Ari Fleischer has an opinion piece in The Post today. He makes the case that the press briefings have become a "TV show." According to Fleischer: "Gone are the days when this daily session was a serious affair, with mostly serious questions asked and mostly serious answers given. Instead, the public is now treated to a spectacle in which the media do their best to pressure the White House, regardless of which party is in power, into admitting that much of what the president is doing is wrong, and the White House pushes back. The two sides talk past each other, and the viewing public gets to watch a good fight."...And who's to blame for this state of affairs?
"One of President Bill Clinton's press secretaries, Mike McCurry, in an effort to accommodate the new 24-hour-a-day cable news programs, allowed his briefings to be open to TV coverage. Poor Mike. The first briefing the press covered live was on the day the Monica Lewinsky story broke. Since then the briefing room has never been the same."
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Door-to-Door?
Getting ready to design your palm cards or door-hangers? Here's a sample Dem door-hanger ...
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Bush Could Score Points with Energy Debate
Dick Morris' new column suggests the current energy problems are an opportunity for President Bush to change the subject from Iraq and to boldly "seize the day."
According to Morris, Bush "should address the nation on television and call on Congress to act quickly on massive new investments to increase the production of alcohol-based fuels and cars that can accommodate them. He should plunge ahead in the development of hydrogen-fueled cars and the conversion of gas stations to provide hydrogen. He should call for major new facilities to produce hydrogen and the rapid production of vehicles that can run on it."
Whether or not you agree with Morris' specific solution to the energy debate, the point to note is that he is calling on the president to declare war on the energy problem. Morris believes this would be a wise political move.
This dovetails a theory I've long held: That a president would actually score points by requiring Americans to actually become involved in solving a crisis.
These flies in the face of what common sense would seem to dictate (that Americans would reject the call for them to make sacrifices).
But let's consider history: When was the last time Americans were asked to become involved in helping the country? It was probably during World War II, when Americans were called on to conserve materials such as metal and paper to be used by factories to produce ships and weapons. Granted, World War II was a unique time in our history, yet the lesson learned is that calling on Americans to sacrifice (for a good cause) is actually welcome.
Unfortunately, for the last forty years, there has been a liberal viewpoint that government is supposed to always be giving things away. And politicians (on both sides of the aisle) have come to believe they must buy votes. This ultimately has made them wary of asking Americans to sacrifice, and ironically has meant that Americans are less happy -- and more isolated -- from government.
I know it's counter--intuitive to think that asking more of people will make them like you more -- but the truth is people like to serve. This phenomenon is called the Ben Franklin effect: "When we do a person a favor, we tend to like them more as a result."
Today our men and women in uniform are asked to make the ultimate sacrifice while simultaneously, average civilians are not asked to contribute anything. I believe this is one of the reasons many Americans feel disconnected. How could we identify with sacrifice when it is business as usual on the home front?
With the exception of the tsunami and Hurricane Katrina, Americans have not recently been asked to sacrifice anything. And these aforementioned sacrifices don't really count because they were seen as a chance to be charitable to others -- rather than a vital act necessary for our collective survival.
Anyone who has ever managed employees or volunteers knows people are generally happier when they are busy and being asked to contribute. We derive a feeling of importance and self-esteem from being needed. There is no greater way to create a disgruntled employee than to pay him to sit at the office without ever fulfilling a goal. Sure, the first week is good. But in the long run, this breeds contempt.
Morris is really arguing that we can enlist Americans in a new war ... a war for energy independence. This will serve to inspire and enlist Americans, without spilling a drop of blood. And, as he puts it, it could take the focus off of Iraq if is used to "distract Americans with a stellar performance in a new crisis."
Of course, as is always the case, style is as important as substance. For Bush to sell this idea, he would have to go on national TV and really "sell" it. The question Morris fails to address is that, even if Bush were persuaded to take his advice, could the president actually execute the strategy?
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The Post has a good piece on Tony Snow this morning. My take: This is a good move for Bush. ... Amanda Carpenter reports that Sen. John McCain is being very generous to the MI GOP.... April 26 ( Bloomberg) -- "Republican leaders, plagued by internal divisions over spending and immigration, plan to change the subject in Congress to issues that provide a sharper contrast with Democrats." ... Laura Bush stays on message: "Asked by a reporter about high gas prices, Bush smiled. ''No,' she said. 'I'm going to talk about national parks.'
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Snow Getting the Gig?
Word on the street is that they will name Tony Snow the press secretary, tomorrow. Stay tuned...
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Democrat Pollster Mark Mellman recently wrote an article for The Hill on the topic of voter registration.
As he puts it, "Most campaigns relegate voter-registration efforts to second-class status." What he fails to mention is that there is often good cause for this status: Campaigns exist in a world of limited resources. Choices must be made regarding the best use of a campaign's time, talent, and treasure. And common sense dictates focusing these resources toward persuading likely voters to vote for their candidate. Is it wise for campaigns to invest precious resources on a segment of the voter universe with a proven track record of not voting, when they could spend those same resources on proven likely voters? In most cases, this is not a wise investment. (The exception to this rule is when your district is so skewed against you that the only conceivable way you can win is to change the numbers). Note: While voter registration may be a wise and prudent strategy for an organization or political party with a long-term goal of changing America, it may not be wise for a campaign looking to use limited resources to quickly win votes. While political parties and activist organizations exist after Election Day, a political campaign ends on Election Day. As such, their priorities are different. When it comes to a political campaign, think of the level of difficulty involved in registering new voters, versus merely persuading proven voters: Convincing a likely voter requires just one step: 1. Get them to vote for you. Conversely, convincing an unregistered voter requires 3-steps: 1. Register them to vote.
2. Get them to show up on Election Day (or vote absentee)
3. Make sure they vote for you. ...You tell me where you get the most "bang" for your buck. In any event, according to Mellman, voter registration may be more important for Democrats because their "core constituency is much less likely to be registered." So it may be a mute point for us...
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Progressive Conservatives?
Convinced the liberal label had become an albatross around their neck -- liberals have begun labeling themselves: "progressive." In truth, this is not a new term, but a recycled term used by liberals in the past. For example, in 1948, the Progressive Party nominated former FDR vice president Henry A. Wallace to run against Harry Truman from the Left. At a reception I attended last night, Jack Kemp made the argument that being progressive (which means advancing) is not an ideological term. Thus, there are many progressive conservatives. Will this term ever come into vogue? Who knows? Some find it offensive to add a qualifier before the word conservative. For this reason, the term "compassionate conservative" was heavily criticized (even before Iraq and Bush's government spending became issues). However, I've never heard anyone criticize someone for being a "Reagan Republican," so I have to assume that qualifiers, in and of themselves, are not the problem. Additionally, many conservatives (who have already conceded the word progressive to the liberals) would object to our using the term, for fear that it implies we are becoming more liberal. Of course, this implies a lack of understanding regarding the entire intellectual exercise. As stated earlier, if progressive means "advancing," then it has no inherent ideological connotation. My contention is that it was wise for liberals to re-label themselves "progressive." Conservatives have done a good job over the last twenty-five years of telling America the truth about liberalism, and thus, damaging the brand name. As such, the liberals have had to make a choice: Change policies or change names (and changing names is easier). Likewise, it would be lunacy for conservatives to ever use the term "progressive" to describe a liberal. Using their language means playing into their hands and allowing them escape their past record of flawed programs. While I have written in the past about not using the term "progressive," until last night, it didn't honestly occur to me that we could accurately use the word, ourselves. Now that is an interesting idea.
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Kudos to HEO for Newt
Kudos to Human Events Online for their new Newt Gingrich feature, Winning the Future.. It looks great!
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How Dems Woo Values Voters
The Fix has a good post about VA Governor Tim Kaine's pollster. Of course, Kaine, a Democrat, was able to win in conservative Virginia... Kaine's pollster would like to replicate his success in other states. According to the blog, this requires Democrat candidates to follow a two-step approach: 1. Demonstrate from day 1 that you are religious enough (thus taking the issue off the table). 2. Then, make the election about the issues that Democrats traditionally win on (like education, health care, etc.). Or, as the Fix puts it, the lesson learned is: "Democrats can win support from religious voters by working early on to show that their candidates are people of faith and then moving on to other issues important to this key voting bloc. In January and February 2005, the Kaine campaign ran radio ads in rural parts of the state focused on his work as a missionary and emphasizing his personal faith. Kaine also spoke at the Family Foundation, a socially conservative advocacy organization based in Richmond."
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Joe Klein's Politics Lost is one book I'm looking forward to reading... According to Chuck Todd: "If you're a political junkie who's obsessed with ideology, this book might not be for you. On the other hand, if you're a political junkie who's obsessed with how presidential campaigns are won and lost, then Politics Lost, the latest book from Time columnist Joe Klein, is a must-read. Klein gives us behind-the-scenes glimpses of every consequential presidential campaign since 1968, and no self-respecting expert will want to miss it. It's also a lot of fun." It seems the main premise is that politics is supposed to be daring and inspiring (think of Churchill and Reagan). Yet, all too often, political handlers want to play it safe. Granted, there are times to "run out the clock" and there are times to throw a "Hail-Mary." But politics can't always be paint by the numbers. Another idea that this brings to mind is something I've always known: Smart political operatives can make a big difference, but at the end of the day, the candidates are the ones with their names on the ballot. They must have the vision and passion. Sure, candidates must surround themselves with good political operatives. But the best operatives in the world can't make a bad candidate a bold or inspiring leader. My opinion: Being a savvy politico -- and having panache -- should not be mutually exclusive. Whether this is substantive or stylistic, greatness is rarely derived from playing it safe. A quick review of history confirms this fact. Regardless of the author's political ideology, this book sounds terrific. I look forward to picking it up. If you have already read this book, please email me your thoughts on it...
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The Post has an interesting book review of Matthew Continetti's: THE K STREET GANG, The Rise and Fall of the Republican Machine ... "When Matthew Continetti took a job at the Weekly Standard a few years ago, he was a young conservative committed to denouncing big government. But Continetti was surprised by what he found in the nation's capital: Republican operatives were 'getting rich off conservative power,' leaving Washington a city "on the brink of major scandal" ...
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Craig Shirley has a provocative opinion piece in The Post today, titled: How the GOP Lost Its Way. The main thesis is that the Country Club Republicans are still dominating the GOP: "The elites in the GOP have never understood conservatives or Reagan; they've found both to be a bit tacky. They have always found the populists' commitment to values unsettling. To them, adherence to conservative principles was always less important than wealth and power."(Premium members of our site can listen to our past interview with him here.)
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This Weekend in Richmond
Tomorrow, I am giving a little talk in Richmond on the subject of "how to build a grassroots organization." I will be joined by our good friend Phillip Stutts. As you may know, Phillip ran the 72 Hour Task Force for the Bush/Cheney '04 campaign (which explains why he's lecturing on GOTV.) Phillip is one of the good guys in this business. Check out his new website. And don't forget about our recent interview with him (which I highly recommend to you) ...
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The Shake-Up Spin ...
In my opinion, The Washington Post is being a bit hard on Scott McClellan, today: ... Howard Kurtz writes: "He was painful to watch at times, gamely repeating the same stock phrases under a barrage of hostile media fire, grasping for new ways to deliver the same non-answers." (By the way, last time I checked, that's called "staying on message.") ... Dana Milbank writes: "Bush bestowed the dreaded 'heckuva job' laurel on McClellan ('job well done' was today's version) and said: 'I don't know whether or not the press corps realizes this, but his is a challenging assignment dealing with you all on a regular basis." Others have been more kind to Scott, but are attributing the shake-up's to Bush's dilemma: Dan Balz opines, "... yesterday's senior staff changes represent a frank acknowledgment of the trouble in which President Bush now finds himself. " My take hasn't changed. McClellan had a tough job. Was he perfect? No. But it's a tough gig ...
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Sign Wars
 The Fix reports on the Shad Planking, an annual Southern VA political event (which I have attended numerous times, but not this year...). Aside from the personal politicking, the Shad Planking (in recent years) also involves a battle to see which camp can put up the most yard signs. I'm a proponent of trying to win every facet of a political campaign -- from the air wars to the ground wars -- I don't like to concede anything. But some people get lazy and try to "justify" the fact that they were outmaneuvered... According to the Fix: "Asked why he had such a small presence at Shad Planking (he apparently chose not to compete in the sign war, outnumbered even by Republican Rep. Randy Forbes who is a shoe-in for reelection this fall), ( Harris) Miller pointed to his background as a businessman, arguing that investing thousands of dollars on signs, a beer truck and other paraphernalia didn't seem a sound investment to him. 'If George Allen wants to waste tens of thousands of dollars on signs, good for him,' Miller said. 'I wonder if his donors in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina know that." Let's be frank, Harris. You got whooped. That's okay. At least be honest about it. Others take the sign wars more seriously. Allen advisor Chris LaCivita once swam across some chilly April waters in order to place a George Allen sign on a small island (which was on the way to Wakefield). He also was famous for using a truck-ladder to staple signs on phone polls. This was done so that they would be visible (and hard for anti-Allen folks to tear down). How's that for commitment?
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Political Wisdom over Lunch...
So I was lunching at Clyde's in Alexandria last weekend, and ended up talking with one of the managers about politics. (As Dick Morris has said, "the hardest thing in politics is to be an insider and think like an outsider" -- so I always like to talk politics with people who don't work in politics.) The restaurant manager (whom I know pretty well) described himself to me as "not a Republican, but a conservative." When the subject turned to the current state of affairs he said, "Reagan, now he made people feel good. This guy now, he makes people feel like (fill in the blank)." Which made me think: Is this revisionism, or is it legit? Here's why I ask: Sociologists have found that people tend to have selective memories. For example, I've heard that in the 1940s, more people said they voted for FDR than actually cast ballots for him. I'm willing to bet that more people today claim they voted for Reagan in 1980 than actually did. I'm a huge Ronald Reagan fan, so I am probably as guilty of this as anybody. But it is important to actually base our opinions and commentary on true history... The truth is: There was a time when Reagan was on the ropes. I remember Iran-Contra ... and Robert Bork ... and the liberal's protests over nuclear proliferation. I remember when he made a joke about bombing the Soviet Union -- and when he fired the air traffic controllers. And I remember the jokes about his "Star Wars" plan (which actually may have won the Cold War). The liberals used to heap animadversion on the Gipper every chance they got. They hated him as much as they hate George W. Bush -- maybe more! ... They called him old. They called him stupid. They said he created homelessness and Aids. None of it was true, of course. But it didn't stop them from saying it. Luckily time has vindicated him, as he knew it would. But let's be frank: Just as there will never be another George Washington or Abe Lincoln -- no modern Republican (including Bush) will be able to compare to Reagan -- and it's not even fair to use him as the standard. To paraphrase Jack Bentsen, it's as if every Republican president must be told: "I knew Ronald Reagan -- and you're no Ronald Reagan." But let's not kid ourselves. In 1987, they wanted to impeach Reagan. And last night, I flew into Reagan National Airport. Bush can still turn this around.
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My Campaign Tips Email...
Those of you who are on my campaign tips email list (you can sign up to the left of the screen), received a blast email from me, last night. I've learned that some folks couldn't open the links. As such, I've copied them below. - If you are interested in the Texas GOP Convention Training (this is a PDF and opens slow) - If you are interested in the Campaigns & Elections Magazine Discount (your password is 7PENN).
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It's being reported that Bush spokesman Scott McClellan has resigned. Amanda Carpenter has posted his resignation statement... I don't blame him for moving on. It's a tough gig. Now, the speculation begins as to who will take his place. ... Daily Kos sardonically asks: "Who can master the art of 'we don't comment on ongoing investigations?' Who has the stamina to repeat day after day, week after week, that Saddam 'was a grave threat'? Who has the skill to weave the words 'terrorists flew planes into buildings' into at least one question per briefing? The nomination floor is open.
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The Post has a pretty thorough bio piece on Brit Hume, today. No doubt, this will be controversial. I notice that some liberal blogs have already chimed in. And I'm sure there are some slights at Hume's conservatism, within the pages. But putting political ideology aside, I always encourage people to read biographies and columns like this. The reason is that it helps to understand that Brit Hume didn't just become "famous" one day. He has had a long career full of ups and downs and victories and triumphs (which are detailed in the article). Like all of us, he faced both personal hurdles (such as his son's suicide), and professional hurdles. I always find that bio pieces provide the reader a greater persective on how careers are really built (versus the myth that someone got "lucky"). Even the people who make it to the top have had to endure numerous struggles. This is good for us to remember...
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Matt Training at Texas GOP Convention!
I'm doing the grassroots training at the Texas Republican Convention on June 1st. This convention is actually bigger than the GOP National Convention! Here is some info about the training (note, this is a PDF).
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Conservative Blog News!
According to Hotline's On Call blog, there are some good shake-up's taking place in the conservative blogosphere, today. The first involved our good friends at Human Events. They've already got Ann Coulter and Bob Novak as regular contributers. Now, they have added Newt Gingrich to their stable! He will be reportedly writing a weekly column. As you may know, as the first conservative weekly, Human Events was Ronald Reagan's favorite magazine. In the last year or so, the HumanEventsOnline website has taken off like a meteor. (I'm baised, of course, because I am a contributer). Still, there is no doubt HEO is reclaiming it's perch as the source for conservative news and views. The second big blog story is that Salem Communications (home of our good friend, Chuck DeFeo) has just purchased Townhall. This is huge news... (BTW, premium members can read my recent interview with Chuck by clicking here.) Good stuff is happening!
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The Fix asks: Is Bill Frist the new Howard Dean? "On Frist's Volunteer PAC site, he offers visitors several ways to interact semi-directly with him. First, Frist has a blog that is updated regularly through which he seeks to take the temperature of visitors on controversial issues like immigration and judges. To date, the blog has received more than 20,000 posts from readers, and Frist aides insist the senator regularly participates in the online debate.Frist also recently announced a podcast, a feature that has become de rigeur for the Web sites of aspiring 2008ers. But Frist is planning an interesting twist: He allows visitors to submit questions on the site that he then answers in the "iFrist" podcast. Frist currently has five podcasts available for downloading -- ranging from 'Feingold's Censure Stunt' to the less excitingly titled "Immigration Debate Update.' (At press time, Frist's was the 22nd most popular political podcast on the Apple iTunes Music Store.) Aides to Frist also note that a recent interview he did with Instapundit's Glenn Reynolds (a well-known conservative blogger) has already been downloaded almost 500,000 times.Today Frist will launch a tool that allows users to participate in seven online mini campaigns. The options include taking a survey on national security, signing a petition in support of President Bush or endorsing the reelection campaigns of Sens. Jim Talent (Mo.) and Rick Santorum (Pa.). The site allows individuals to monitor the progress of the campaigns for which they volunteer online and allow them to invite friends to participate as well. How effective any one of these online approaches will be in recruiting supporters (and donors) to Frist's 2008 cause is an open question. There is a at least one crucial difference between Dean and Frist. Like him or hate him, the former Vermont governor inspired passion and loyalty among those who believed in him. At best, Frist can be described as low-key, at worst boring. Can a man with the Tennessee senator's mien inspire people to activism via the Web?"
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Calling him, "A Republican Jimmy Carter, Dick Morris has some advice for President Bush: What can Bush do? Anything he wants to. He's still president. Here's a menu" Really focus on energy issues: Come out for massive investment in ethanol production, delivery and vehicles, and more: retrofitting all gas stations for ethanol and hydrogen; a new push for nuclear power; heavy investment in clean coal technology, burying the carbon dioxide. Truly lead the nation away from petroleum. Admit that global warming is happening, and launch major new programs to curb it: Many are the same measures as can solve our energy dependence. But add in mandatory upgrading of power plants to cut emissions and major investment in solar and bio-mass energy. Build a wall, but let guest workers in: Right-wingers want a wall on our southern border; they'd accept a guest-worker program if we could regulate our own borders. Latinos would accept a wall if there were a chance for immigrants to do legal work and a path to citizenship. Give both what they want, and lead the country into a grand compromise. Put the drug fight front and center: Demand drug testing in schools with parental consent, and tax incentives for workplace drug testing. Link cocaine to terrorism, and build a national consensus for tough measures to cut demand. Bush can restore his presidency's drive with new issues. If he doesn't, he'll wind up leading his party to the greatest shipwreck since Watergate."
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More Huckabee
More controversy about my Huckabee posting from last week. There was also an AP story, but I can't find the link (email me if you can find it)...
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Nice Start
It is a georgious Saturday in DC today. I've got lunch plans in Shepherdstown, WV, so blogging will be light today. I just wanted to check in and wish you a Happy Easter.
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Huckabee Picks Fight With Club for Growth
In terms of his presidential campaign, Mike Huckabee is the anti-McCain. Whereas McCain has run an almost flawless early presidential campaign (I know he hasn't officially declared, but that's what this is), the Arkansas governor seems to have squandered his golden opportunities. Huckabee's problems became blatantly obvious when he failed to organize any supporters at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll in Memphis. Because Memphis is close in proximity to Arkansas, Huckabee's dismal performance was viewed by many as a missed opportunity. While Bill Frist kept his presidential ambitions alive by doing well in the straw poll -- and Romney bolstered his credentials by doing well in it -- Huckabee ignored this opportunity to demonstrate his political viability. And while McCain has been working to cultivate cultural conservatives, Huckabee seems to be doing his best to alienate fiscal conservatives. He has somehow become embroiled in a feud with the Club for Growth (which is currently being played out on their blog). It is one thing to support a minimum wage hike. It is quite another thing to take pleasure in picking a fight with one of DC's most effective conservative groups. Traditionally, there has been room in presidential campaigns for a movement conservative candidate to carve out a nice niche in the primaries (think Pat Robertson or Alan Keyes). Many thought Huckabee would fill this void. Let's be honest, this position is usually less about winning than it is about building a national organization, making contacts, and helping make sure the Republican frontrunner stays conservative. But Huckabee's recent missteps -- coupled with Sam Brownback's immigration position -- have conspired to leave this position vacant. Is this an opportunity for another conservative to step up to the plate?
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Today's Washington Post recounts the Democrats' candidate recruitment strategy, this year: According to the Post, NRCC Chairman, Rahm Emanuel, "turned to a team of young, eager House Democrats, with Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the lead and with meetings set for every other Thursday at 8 a.m. The team divided the country by regions and aggressively beat the bushes in search of candidates with charisma and the potential for raising money." ... And here's the part I like: The Dems realized their success was contingent on convincing both the candidate -- and the candidate's spouse -- that running was a good idea: " Trudi Inslee, the wife of Rep. Jay Inslee (Wash.), led a spousal outreach program to reassure the wives and husbands of candidates about the life of a congressional family." Has it worked? That remains to be seen. The ultimate success of this program will be judged based on the win/loss ratio in November. But here are two current comments: "I will give them full credit for having recruited some good candidates, no doubt about it,' said Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)." ... "I'd give Rahm a B' for recruitment, (Stu) Rothenberg said. 'There isn't a giant sea change here. Have they had some successes at the margins? Yeah. And maybe that's about all you can do."
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... and the News
Happy Wednesday. Here are a few things I thought you'd be interested in, today. ... Larry Sabato looks at "classic errors" and "gaffes" being made by political candidates, this cycle. ... LA TIMES: "Democrat Francine Busby placed first in the race to fill the seat left by disgraced former U.S. Rep. Randy 'Duke' Cunningham, but will face former Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray in a June runoff." ... The Hill: "Democrats brought in bloggers ... to advise press secretaries on how to court blogs. The Democratic caucus devoted its entire March 29 meeting to technology issues." ... At National Journal, Chuck Todd says there is "one big disadvantage Democrats are facing this cycle that Republicans didn't have in 1994 -- an opponent aware that they have a problem." (In other words, the first step toward recovery is acceptance.) ... Daily Kos offers liberals advice on how to divide and conquer conservatives. ... The Hill: "A group of former Clinton administration officials not fully satisfied with the Democratic National Committee's outreach to the Hispanic community are participating in a soon-to-be launched multimillion-dollar effort to brand the Democratic Party among Hispanic residents."
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The Fix writes that Mitt Romney is courting conservatives in Iowa. Based on the history of caucuses in the state, this is probably wise: "The Iowa Republican caucuses traditionally have been dominated by religious conservatives, who have helped propel candidates who share their worldview to surprisingly strong showings. In 1988, the Rev. Pat Robertson came from nowhere to finish second in the caucuses behind Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. Eight years later Pat Buchanan, bolstered by support from religious conservatives, placed second behind Dole, who went on to win the GOP nomination."
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The Post has a story today about how yesterday's march was, for many involved, their first political involvement. Well, from a political standpoint, it wasn't a bad start. The U.S. flags were certainly a nice touch, and the girl saying the pledge of allegiance was very good (check out Rob Bluey's photo gallery). ... Sure, Michelle Malkin's blog shows the behind-the-scenes orchestration of this event (what, it wasn't spontaneous!?). Anyone who works in politics knows that any event is scripted. She also has some pictures of some non-Hispanic leftist radicals working the event (which is much more disturbing than the revelation that the organizers handed out the signs...). Still, perception is reality, and most "undecided" viewers aren't going to read Michelle's blog. If the goal was to win public sympathy for their cause, this march came a lot closer than the previous demonstrations in California did. However, I do have a few thoughts on where they may have missed the mark. ... As the Post noted, "Although the crowd was mostly Latino -- speakers' statements were routinely translated from English into Spanish ..." The language barrier is a dilemma most previous marches have not had to overcome. Upon watching the footage, it occurred to me that the speeches in Spanish (while needed for communication) may have actually served to undermine the non-threatening and inclusive image the organizers were going for (what with all the American flags). Think of it this way: Who was the target audience? Was it the people at the event? No. They are already in favor of this. The real audience was the average person at home, watching the march on TV. Only when you consider who the target audience truly is, will you understand my assessment. On another note, clearly, part of the purpose of yesterday's march was to send a message to Republicans. However, the biggest mistake the organizers made was in planning a march when Congress is out of session. For the life of me, I can't figure that one out ... Who knows? Maybe they should have hired a political consultant???
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... and the News
... In defending the practice of "leaking," the LA Times writes: "Founding Father Alexander Hamilton, whose face adorns the $10 bill, played a crucial role in winning popular support for the Constitution. But his dream of becoming president was dashed when someone told a scandal-mongering journalist about an affair Hamilton had had with a married woman. " ... Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the fact that Hamilton was born in the British West Indies would have constitutionally destroyed his "dreams" of becoming president??? ... Sen. George Allen has revamped his website. It's looking good. ... National Journal's Hotline reports: "Immaculate Steelers Receptor Franco Harris shared 4 Super Bowl wins with ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann (R), but plans to raise money, speak and do TV for Gov. Ed Rendell (D)." ... Tat tip to Dan Flynn for this link: Which state pays the most in taxes? Hint: It ain't North Dakota. ... According to the Washington Post: "Only 40 percent of U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote, according to a recent study by the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California, and fewer than half vote regularly. One-third of Latinos are too young to vote. And an estimated 27 percent are adults but noncitizens or illegal immigrants."
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It's funny how news goes. The Washington Post has an article today about how the Christian Coalition is no longer at its peak. (Most of us have known for at least eight years that the national organization was in major decline). Yet, for some reason, this news story is somehow "newsworthy" today??? I'm not sure why. The only reason to even cover this organization is to tie it to Ralph Reed. Oh yeah, they do make the point that the IA chapter recently decided to form their own entity... In any event, it's worth reading. And I can attest to the fact that, at least, one of the points made is true: It was easier for conservative organizations to raise money when Clinton was president. Isn't that ironic?
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... and the News
Lots of good stuff in the news today: ... From the Washington Post: A former DeLay staffer writes an "insider" account ... And "every generation has one," but with DeLay out -- who will be the next "enforcer?" (Hint, they say Pelosi isn't tough enough ...) ... George Will says if Republicans do bad this November ... McCain stands to gain. (As I've said in the past, the political environment continues to be kind to McCain ... but it's still early.) ... David Broder talks about how women can be elected to Congress. BTW, this site tells you the best and worst places for women to run. (Why do you think Hillary didn't go back and run in Arkansas???) ... And speaking of women, under the rubric of "entertainment": Rolling Stone magazine says "Pink is ambitious the way Madonna used to be ..." I for one, applaud her for her recent hit, "Stupid Girls," which pokes fun at the likes of Britney Spears, Jessica Simpson, and the "ditzy" set. If you haven't heard the song ( or seen the video) yet, here are a few of the lyrics: "What happened to the dream of a girl president?/She's dancing in the video next to 50 Cent."
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 What does "off the record," "background," "deep background," or "double super-secret background" really mean? Well, it turns out ( as this article points out) nobody really knows. When talking to a reporter, you have to define the rules up front. The words mean different things to differen people (and none of them are leagally binding, anyway)...
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Churchill on Losing
 Sometimes I post things for you and sometimes I post things to motivate me. This one is for me. It's to inspire me. And it comes from a great little essay written by Chris Matthews titled: The ten lessons of Winston Churchill.This is just an excerpt, but I hope you enjoy it as much as I did: "I'm impressed by the number of elections Churchill lost.
There was that first time he ran for Parliament -- 1899 -- before he headed to South Africa.
He lost again when he joined the Liberal government in 1908 and had to face a special election.
The party had to find him another district where he could win.
He lost three times in the 1920s.
After some surgery at that time, he said he found himself 'without an office, without a seat, without a party, and without an appendix.'
He and his party got killed in 1945.
Here's Anthony Eden, who served as Britain's foreign minister for so many years, then succeeded him as prime minister:
'Courage for some sudden act, maybe in the heat of battle, we all respect, but there is that still rarer courage which can sustain repeated disappointment, unexpected failure, and shattering defeat. Churchill had that too and had need of it, not for a day, but for weeks and months and years.'
He lost a half a dozen elections in his life, but had nothing but contempt for those who loved the word 'democracy' but rejected free elections.
'Democracy is not some harlot in the street to be picked up by some man with a Tommy gun,' he said. 'Democracy is based on reason, a sense of fair play, and freedom and a respect for other people."
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... and the News
Over at The Hill, Dem pollster Mark Mellman predicts: "Attacking Latinos will do the same damage to Republicans elsewhere, without helping them win even one election." ... If you like classic or "retro" country music, I found this station. You can listen online, and there's no need to register for a password. Just click "listen now!" on the left side of the screen. ... GOP Outreach to Labor Unions? According to Hotline, "WH pol. dir. Sara Taylor, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and RNC pol. dir. Mike DuHaime will sit down with pol. directors and execs from at least seven unions in RNC meetings this month. Participating unions include the carpenters, the operating engineers, the firefighters, the laborers, the boilermakers, the painters and the seafarers." ... The Boston Globe reports: "The Pew Research Center's Andrew Kohut has reported that ''incompetent' has replaced ''honest' as the most frequent descriptor applied to Bush."
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Stay on Message, People!
From Roll Call: "At Wednesday's weekly closed-door House GOP Conference gathering, House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) urged his colleagues to quit piling on Rep. McKinney. His message basically was: Why murder someone who has already committed political suicide?
Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) got up next to address the Conference. Thomas said he planned to go to the floor at the first opportunity to "thank Cynthia McKinney."
'OFF message,' Boehner playfully interjected amid a room full of laughter.
'And I want to congratulate her on her beautiful new hairdo,' Thomas added."
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... and the News
Over at the American Spectator, R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. says there is a " stature gap" in politics, today. ... Personal Democracy Forum rates Rick Santorum's website. According to the Fix, 527 Reform passed by the House yesterday would "allow party committees to spend unlimited sums and coordinate those expenditures with the candidates." (This is important because -- unlike independent expenditures -- an ad paid for by a candidate costs less and cannot be taken off the air).
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Ever notice how when people leave a job, they never diss their former boss? Instead they talk about "creative differences" or the need to "spend more time with family." Well, that's the classy thing to do -- and if you are a political operative, it's pretty much standard etiquite. Over at Human Events, Rob Bluey has some good thoughts on the subject...
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According to today's Washington Post: "An internal document prepared by a top Democratic strategist warns that a majority of African American voters in Maryland are open to supporting Republican Senate candidate Michael S. Steele and advises the party not to wait to 'knock Steele down." Maryland is a tough state. Dems can win if they are able to tie Steele to Bush and the national GOP. Steele will have to avoid that fate, if he is to win in November. ...Meanwhile, Lynn Swann is not having as much luck attracting African-American voters in PA. ...And adding insult to injury, IA Gov. Tom Vilsack is dissing Lynn Swann. According to the Post-Gazette, Vilsack said of Swann: "He wasn't even qualified enough to get in the booth ... And as a lifelong Steelers fan, I can tell you that John Stallworth was a better receiver." Hey, you can bash the man's politics. But how dare you go after his game! And by the way ... as a lifelong political fan, I can tell you John Hoeven is a better Governor than Vilsack.
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Jerry Maguire Moment?
 "Don't worry, I'm not going to do what you all think I'm going to do, which is just FLIP OUT!"
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They say that, "necessity is the mother of invention." Well, that maxim is certainly true in politics. Political campaigns that have plenty of money tend to be conservative. Too often, they "play it safe," and get a bit lazy. They are like the football team that is trying to run out the clock and play a "prevent defense." Meanwhile, candidates without money often have to rack their brains to find creative ways to generate "earned" media. Sometimes this results in innovation, and sometimes it results in costly mistakes. ...But when you're down by two touchdowns, you are more likely to be willing to throw a "Hail Mary." And as the Redskins learned last year during the Monday Night game against the Cowboys -- sometimes, it actually works! Such is the certainly the case in the Maryland Democrat gubernatorial primary race, where Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley is out-spending Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan. According to the Washington Post: "With money tight, Duncan has been forced to rely heavily on generating media coverage, sending his image-makers and press secretaries into overdrive." This has resulted in recycling internet ads, as well as relying on a heavy schedule of talk radio interviews for the candidate. Of course, being without money means you miss opportunities. As the Post reports, "Michael Morrill, a longtime Maryland Democratic strategist who is neutral in the race, said Duncan is 'in the most difficult place to be in a campaign." "He is trying to create a wave he can ride, and the best campaigns ride the waves that are already out there," Morrill said. "He does not have the money nor the press platform to make that wave on his own and right now."
Another dilemma facing campaigns such as Duncan's is deciding whether or not to spend his limited money -- or to hoard it. Traditional campaign logic dictates that you hoard early money, and then spend it toward the end of the campaign (when voters are making up their minds). After all, the logic goes, only political junkies are paying attention now. Undecided voters -- the ones that matter -- don't pay attention until the last weeks before an election (note: MD will have early voting this year, so that changes the timeline a bit). ... Of course, in the real world, things are never that neat and tidy. The truth is that it takes money to raise money. Sometimes you have to spend money to be deemed "viable." If you never spend money, how can you build momentum? Additionally, if you don't spend money early, you run the risk of having your opponent define you and effectively end the campaign early. Struggling campaigns often make the choice to do whatever they have to do to survive, stay somewhat viable, and to "live to fight another day." They reason that every day they "stay alive" is a day that a savior might ride in on a white horse and write them that big check. Of course, this is usually a mistake ...
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...and the News
Since when does staying up to watch Scarborough Country pay off??? From DeLay's speech: "Because I care so deeply about this district and the people in it, I refuse to allow liberal Democrats an opportunity to steal this seat with a negative, personal campaign." RedState.com says DeLay was, "a gargantuan Machiavellian foe, in the body of a diminutive Texan." Dan Flynn says his departure "will be welcomed by conservatives." Other news... ... North Dakota held their Republican convention this past weekend. According to the Fargo Forum, candidates used some creative " gimmicks to spice up the convention." ... Page, ND farmer Matt Mechtel beat a veteran lawmaker and will be facing Earl Pomeroy on the Congressional race. Kudos to Mechtel. He is a good man. ( Bloomberg) - "William F. Buckley Jr., the longtime conservative writer and leader, said that while a strong Republican candidate for the 2008 presidential race has yet to emerge, the Democrats have in Senator Hillary Clinton a true contender to become the first woman elected U.S. president." Is dissatisfaction with the national GOP working to benefit outside conservative groups like The Club? Could this be a trend of power and money moving away from the party committee's?
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Breaking News
Whoa. Tom DeLay won't seek re-election ... Didn't see that one coming ...
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More Online Ad Info...
Today's National Journal "Ad Spotlight" has an interview with Matthew MacWilliams of MacWilliams, Robinson and Partners (D). Here is an excerpt... Q: What makes an effective campaign and/or issue-oriented ad?
MacWilliams: Two factors make political ads effective: content and delivery.
Effective ads just don't talk about issues or policy in a vacuum -- they need to connect with voters and their day--to-day lives.
With the dramatic changes in media consuming habits, effective spots must be planned, produced and placed as one part of a synchronized, layered communications plan that includes cable, radio, field, phone, mail, Web ads and other Internet opportunities. Media consultants who don't get this are dinosaurs.
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If you're on a campaign, you've got to be on top of the latest technology. Now days, that often includes using online videos as part of your communications plan. According to today's Washington Post ... " Political campaigns have begun to understand what corporate America already knows: Multiple sources of information and entertainment are making it more difficult for advertisers to reach their target audiences through traditional TV spots. Now, consultants say campaigns are turning to online video -- which can have more emotional impact than a TV ad -- as a form of targeted media to reach particular groups." More...
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Advanced Training
We held our advanced communications training on Saturday! This was a new thing for me. I've spoken at hundreds of trainings seminars or events, but this is the first time I have sponsored one (in the past, I was invited to speak by a group, party or organization). The attendee's were top-notch and very diverse. We had folks come in from as far away as California, Texas, and North Carolina. One is a candidate, two are political consultants, one works for a state party, one works for a nationally recognized conservative organization, one works on The Hill, and one works for a PR firm... Perhaps the most remarkable part of the training was the input that the students gave. Some of the best comments and critiques of one student came from the other students. I am more convinced than ever that advanced training must incorporate some sort of interactive practice. Hearing something is one thing, but mastery comes from practice. It was a good time, and I hope to make this an annual affair...
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