Recommended Reading

Among many other topics discussed, Applebee's America explains why the modern phenomenon of targeting voters based on their "community" is just as important as targeting voters based on voter history.

For example, let's consider the scenario of a 30-year-old male who is a college graduate. He voted for Gore and Kerry in the last two elections. Based on his voter history (which is the traditional way of targeting voters), you would safely assume he is going to vote Democrat. ... But is he???

... What if I told you that in 2005, he got married, joined a mega-church, got a promotion, and bought an SUV. Now how is he going to vote? (This is just one example cited in the book).

I was always taught that history is the best predictor of the future. When it comes to making mass assumptions, I still believe that's true. But when looking at individuals, it is clear that factors such as home-ownership, church attendance, etc., will change a person's voting behavior. In short, targeting based solely on voter history discounts the possibility that some voters do change their voting behavior.

For anyone interested in cutting-edge presidential politics, this book (co-authored by three DC insiders, Doug Sosnik, Matthew Dowd, & Ron Fournier) is a must read.